Lions vs. Commanders prediction: Why Detroit is favored to win in NFL Week 10, 2025

The Washington Commanders will take on the favored Detroit Lions in NFL Week 10 action at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 4:25PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Commanders game.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Lions vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Lions-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Lions and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lions a 69% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 27-21.

According to our model, the Commanders (+8.5) have a 64% chance of covering the spread, while the 49-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Lions vs. Commanders odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lions	Commanders
Spread	-8.5 (-110)	+8.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-450	+380
Total	o49 (-110)	u49 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lions vs. Commanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +8.5	-110
Moneyline	Commanders	+380
Total	Over 49	-110

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +8.5 at the spread.

Lions vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Commanders?

According to our model, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Lions vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Gibbs a 58.7% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is a 13.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	58.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	54.6%
David Montgomery (RB)	45.8%
Sam LaPorta (TE)	37.2%
Jameson Williams (WR)	34.5%

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	34.0%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	32.5%
Zach Ertz (TE)	30.2%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	20.1%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	19.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

Player	First TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	13.0%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	11.6%
David Montgomery (RB)	9.0%
Sam LaPorta (TE)	6.8%
Jameson Williams (WR)	6.2%

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	7.0%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	6.6%
Zach Ertz (TE)	6.0%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	3.8%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	3.5%

Lions vs Commanders player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected for 249 passing yards, while the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 217 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Jared Goff (DET)	249
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	217

Lions rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs	75
David Montgomery	52
Jared Goff	4

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	41
Marcus Mariota	33
Chris Rodriguez	30

Lions receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown	86
Jameson Williams	51
Sam LaPorta	48
Jahmyr Gibbs	26
Kalif Raymond	15

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Deebo Samuel	61
Zach Ertz	40
Jaylin Lane	33
Chris Moore	27
Jeremy McNichols	15

Lions vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 10 action between the Commanders and Lions at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 10 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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