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NFL betting model insights report: Analyzing the Week 14 data
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This NFL Week 14 report pulled data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our NFL betting model excels with a positive ROI.
Week 14 is here and so is a new NFL Model Insight Report. While we weren't able to get our Best Bet of the Weekend over the line in last week's edition, followers of the report had themselves a huge week nonetheless.
Of the six Moneyline bets identified on the closing line across Week 13 with an edge between 2-10%, the NFL prediction model hit on four of them, resulting in a large ROI due to the plus-money wins of the Cowboys, Bengals and Bears.
✅ Cowboys ML (+160)
✅ Bengals ML (+333)
✅ Bears ML (+330)
✅ 49ers ML (-250)
❌ Commanders ML (+245)
❌ Giants ML (+350)
It goes to show why using the insights is the ace up your sleeve when navigating the Dimers site.
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NFL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NFL Best Bets page this week.
Let's check out this week's spots to attack.
NFL 2025 season analysis
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NFL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NFL Best Bets page this week.
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Moneyline favorites (2% edge or more) | 45+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
| Rushing/Receiving yard props (2-5% edge) | 300+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
| Moneyline bets (2-10% edge) | 85+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
| Points Total bets (5-10% edge) | 45+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
INSIGHT: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI
What does all of that mean?
After Week 13’s results, it’s no surprise that Moneyline bets with an edge between 2–10% continue to dominate as one of our strongest profitability spots heading into this weekend’s action. And while Thanksgiving delivered a wave of plus-money hits, the model is also showing positive ROI on moneyline favorites with an edge over 2%. Put simply: the model is on a heater with moneylines right now.
Totals are still showing solid returns, but the sample size has thinned out in recent weeks — so keep an eye on the Best Bets page throughout the week for when those opportunities pop.
We’ve also got new additions. Our team has been working behind the scenes to roll out ROI data for NFL player props, now live across the platform. (Tip: ask our new Dimebot AI Assistant “What’s your NFL record?” and you can instantly pull these numbers on demand.)
On props, the current standouts are clear:
- Rushing Yards props with an edge of 5% or more have delivered a strong ROI from a sample of 240+ bets.
- Receiving Yards props with an edge above 2.5% have also been reliably profitable.
Use these insights to your advantage this week!
RELATED: NBA betting model insights report
NFL Week 14 best bet:
This week we're looking to one of our strongest profit spots of the season with Moneyline favorites, and taking a road team to get the W on Sunday.
Dolphins Moneyline (-150)
With a 64% win probability according to our model (converted into implied odds of -177), that equates to a 4% edge on the best available odds of -150 with BetMGM ✅
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support ✅
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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