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NHL betting insights: Analyzing this week's model performance
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house NHL model has historically excelled with a positive ROI.
Back again for another week after the Thanksgiving Holiday and ready to dive into a new batch of Dimers NHL model insights.
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NHL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NHL Best Bets page this week.
Let's take a look at this week's numbers.
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Let’s keep it rolling as we dive into this week’s numbers.
NHL 2025 season analysis:
As we move deeper into the NHL season, the growing data sample continues to reveal consistent edges in key areas — and this week’s report uncovers some particularly interesting trends.
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Home team Moneyline bets (2% edge and above) | 20+ | POSITIVE |
| Puckline bets (2-5% edge) | 45+ | POSITIVE |
| Road team Puckline bets (2% edge and above) | 50+ | POSITIVE |
What does all of that mean?
The model continues to hold steady in the strongest profitability zones we’ve identified early in the season. Puck Line bets with an edge above 2% remain the top-performing market on the NHL Best Bets page. Both home and road teams are profitable in this range, but road teams are carrying most of the load, with a sample size of more than 50 bets returning a solid positive ROI.
Notably, this market is showing higher ROI on closing-line odds compared with opening lines — meaning waiting until closer to puck drop isn’t a bad strategy when targeting these plays.
On the Moneyline side, the model has been particularly sharp with Home Team ML plays, producing a positive ROI. The sample size is smaller (just over 20 bets) compared to our Road Team ML data set of 60+, but it’s still a trend worth monitoring throughout the week as you browse the Dimers NHL Best Bets page.
NHL best bet for Tuesday
Plays from this series are sitting at 4-0 so far for the Model Insight Report series, and we’re hoping to keep that rolling.
Bruins +1.5 (-155)
For Tuesday night, we’re jumping onto the Boston Bruins +1.5 against the Detroit Red Wings.
Our model’s showing a 63.7% probability here, and a 2.9% edge based on the best odds of -155 at BetMGM Sportsbook. That puts this play right in one of the spots we’ve been hitting pretty well this season: road team puck lines with anything above a 2% edge ✅
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Conclusion
Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NHL Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.
Users should prioritize puck line bets falling within the 2–5% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on Home Team Moneyline bets when they also fall into that key 2–5% edge range ✅
These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NHL Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the ice this week.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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