NBA player props today: Christmas Day best props include LeBron James [12/25/2025]

Dimers' NBA props are live for Christmas Day, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of LeBron James, Draymond Green and Jamal Murray.

Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Timberwolves vs. Nuggets and Mavericks vs. Warriors, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.

List of NBA prop bets for Thursday, 12/25

Sourced from 20+ total props today, below are the top ten NBA player props for December 25, ranked by edge.

LeBron James over 1.5 steals (+182)

• Edge: 11.2%
• Probability: 46.7%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Rockets vs. Lakers (8:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on LA Lakers' LeBron James over 1.5 steals. A probability of 46.7% gives this play an edge of 11.2% at +182 odds.

Draymond Green over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 10.0%
• Probability: 44.0%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Mavericks vs. Warriors (5:00PM ET)

Draymond Green’s steals prop shows a 10.0% edge at +194 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.0 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 44.6%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 44.6% probability and an 8.6% edge at +178.

Jamal Murray over 4.5 rebounds (+134)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 51.1%
• Projection: 4.7
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)

Our model projects Jamal Murray to put up 4.7 rebounds today, creating an edge of 8.3% on the over 4.5 line at +134 odds.

De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals (+159)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 45.4%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Spurs vs. Thunder (2:30PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals for San Antonio, showing an edge of 6.8% at +159 odds.

Marcus Smart over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 44.9%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Rockets vs. Lakers (8:00PM ET)

Marcus Smart’s steals prop shows an edge of 6.8% at +162 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.1 today.

Brandin Podziemski over 4.5 rebounds (+120)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 52.1%
• Projection: 4.9
• Game: Mavericks vs. Warriors (5:00PM ET)

Our model projects Brandin Podziemski for 4.9 rebounds for Golden State, creating an edge of 6.6% on over 4.5 at +120 odds.

Devin Vassell over 2.5 3-pointers made (+125)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 51.1%
• Projection: 2.6
• Game: Spurs vs. Thunder (2:30PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Devin Vassell for 2.6 3-pointers made, creating value on the over 2.5 line at +125 odds and a 6.6% edge.

Nikola Jokic over 1.5 steals (+121)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Projection: 1.6
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)

A 5.6% edge on the over 2.5 steals line makes Nikola Jokic a value play in Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, with our model projecting him for 1.6 steals at +121 odds.

Victor Wembanyama over 2.5 blocks (+138)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 47.5%
• Projection: 2.2
• Game: Spurs vs. Thunder (2:30PM ET)

Simulations project Victor Wembanyama for 2.2 blocks here, creating a 5.5% edge on the over 2.5 line at +138 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, December 25, 2025

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 1:58PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Rockets vs. Lakers	LeBron James over 1.5 steals	+182 @ DraftKings	11.2%	46.7%
Mavericks vs. Warriors	Draymond Green over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	10.0%	44.0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	8.3%	51.1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Jamal Murray over 4.5 rebounds	+134 @ FanDuel	8.3%	51.1%
Spurs vs. Thunder	De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals	+159 @ DraftKings	6.8%	45.4%
Rockets vs. Lakers	Marcus Smart over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	6.8%	44.9%
Mavericks vs. Warriors	Brandin Podziemski over 4.5 rebounds	+120 @ BetMGM	6.6%	52.1%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Devin Vassell over 2.5 3-pointers made	+125 @ DraftKings	6.6%	51.1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Nikola Jokic over 2.5 steals	+121 @ DraftKings	5.6%	50.9%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Victor Wembanyama over 2.5 blocks	+138 @ DraftKings	5.5%	47.5%

Conclusion

For December 25, 2025, our NBA prop bets feature players such as LeBron James, Draymond Green and Jamal Murray. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.