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NBA player props today: Christmas Day best props include LeBron James [12/25/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get NBA player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' NBA props are live for Christmas Day, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of LeBron James, Draymond Green and Anthony Edwards.
Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Timberwolves vs. Nuggets and Mavericks vs. Warriors, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.
List of NBA prop picks for Thursday, 12/25
Below are the top ten NBA player props for December 25, ranked by edge.
LeBron James over 1.5 steals (+175)
- Edge: 10.4%
- Probability: 46.7%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Rockets vs. Lakers (8:00PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on LA Lakers' LeBron James over 1.5 steals. A probability of 46.7% gives this play an edge of 10.4% at +175 odds.
Draymond Green over 1.5 steals (+194)
- Edge: 9.5%
- Probability: 43.5%
- Projection: 1.0
- Game: Mavericks vs. Warriors (5:00PM ET)
Draymond Green’s steals prop shows a 9.5% edge at +194 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.0 steals on the over 1.5 line.
Anthony Edwards over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 9.2%
- Probability: 47.4%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)
The data highlights value on Anthony Edwards over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 47.4% probability and a 9.2% edge at +162.
Brandin Podziemski over 4.5 rebounds (+134)
- Edge: 9.2%
- Probability: 51.9%
- Projection: 4.9
- Game: Mavericks vs. Warriors (5:00PM ET)
Our model projects Brandin Podziemski to record 4.9 rebounds today, creating an edge of 9.2% on the over 4.5 line at +134 odds.
Darius Garland over 2.5 3-pointers made (+128)
- Edge: 8.9%
- Probability: 52.8%
- Projection: 2.7
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Knicks (12:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Darius Garland over 2.5 3-pointers made for Cleveland, showing an edge of 8.9% at +128 odds.
Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals (+178)
- Edge: 8.6%
- Probability: 44.5%
- Projection: 1.1
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)
Jamal Murray’s steals prop shows an edge of 8.6% at +178 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.1 today.
Donovan Mitchell over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 8.1%
- Probability: 46.3%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Knicks (12:00PM ET)
Our model projects Donovan Mitchell for 1.2 steals for Cleveland, creating an edge of 8.1% on over 1.5 at +162 odds.
Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 8.0%
- Probability: 46.1%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)
Our expert modelling projects Jaden McDaniels for 1.2 steals, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds and a 8.0% edge.
Mikal Bridges over 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)
- Edge: 7.7%
- Probability: 50.3%
- Projection: 2.5
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Knicks (12:00PM ET)
A 7.7% edge on the over 1.5 3-pointers made line makes Mikal Bridges a value play in Cavaliers vs. Knicks, with our model projecting him for 2.5 3-pointers made at +135 odds.
Naz Reid over 1.5 steals (+178)
- Edge: 7.3%
- Probability: 43.3%
- Projection: 1.0
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30PM ET)
Simulations project Naz Reid for 1.0 steals here, creating a 7.3% edge on the over 1.5 line at +178 odds.
NBA player prop summary: Thursday, December 25, 2025
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 2:24AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LeBron James over 1.5 steals | +175 @ DraftKings | 10.4% | 46.7% |
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Draymond Green over 1.5 steals | +194 @ FanDuel | 9.5% | 43.5% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Anthony Edwards over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 9.2% | 51.9% |
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Brandin Podziemski over 4.5 rebounds | +134 @ FanDuel | 9.2% | 51.9% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Darius Garland over 2.5 3-pointers made | +128 @ FanDuel | 8.9% | 52.8% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals | +178 @ FanDuel | 8.6% | 44.5% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Donovan Mitchell over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 8.1% | 46.3% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 8.0% | 46.1% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Mikal Bridges over 1.5 3-pointers made | +135 @ BetMGM | 7.7% | 50.3% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Naz Reid over 1.5 steals | +178 @ FanDuel | 7.3% | 43.3% |
Conclusion
For December 25, 2025, our NBA prop bets feature players such as LeBron James, Draymond Green and Anthony Edwards. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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