MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Kevin Gausman [5/11/2026]

Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-146)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Our model has found value on Toronto's Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 65.8% gives this play an edge of 6.5% at -146 odds.

Austin Wells to get a hit (-137)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 60.5%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Austin Wells’s to get a hit prop shows a 60.5% probability and an 2.7% edge at -137 odds, according to our model.

Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts (-112)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 59.1%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

The data highlights value on Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 59.1% probability and a 6.3% edge at -112.

George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed (-112)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Game: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed, with a 58.9% probability and an edge of 6.1% at -112 odds.

Michael Soroka over 4.5 hits allowed (-125)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Michael Soroka over 4.5 hits allowed for Arizona, showing an edge of 2.7% at -125 odds.

Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases (+100)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 58.0%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Aaron Judge’s bases prop shows an edge of 8.0% at +100 odds, supported by a 58.0% probability according to our model.

Trevor McDonald over 15.5 outs recorded (+110)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Trevor McDonald over 15.5 outs recorded for San Francisco, with a 56.7% probability and a 9.1% edge at +110 odds.

Drew Rasmussen under 17.5 outs recorded (-110)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

The data shows value on Drew Rasmussen under 17.5 outs recorded, supported by a 56.5% probability at -110 odds and an edge of 4.1%.

Ben Rice over 1.5 bases (+105)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 52.0%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

A 3.2% edge on the over 17.5 bases line makes Ben Rice a value play in Yankees vs. Orioles, supported by a 52.0% probability at +105 odds.

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases (+135)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 51.9%
• Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases here, with a 51.9% probability and 9.3% edge at +135 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Monday, May 11, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 9:02AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts	-146 @ FanDuel	6.5%	65.8%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Austin Wells to get a hit	-137 @ BetRivers	2.7%	60.5%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts	-112 @ DraftKings	6.1%	58.9%
Mariners vs. Astros	George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed	-112 @ DraftKings	6.1%	58.9%
D-Backs vs. Rangers	Michael Soroka over 4.5 hits allowed	-125 @ DraftKings	2.7%	58.2%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases	+100 @ Fanatics	8.0%	58.0%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Trevor McDonald over 15.5 outs recorded	+110 @ BetMGM	9.1%	56.7%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Drew Rasmussen under 17.5 outs recorded	-110 @ BetMGM	4.1%	56.5%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Ben Rice over 1.5 bases	+105 @ Fanatics	3.2%	52.0%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases	+135 @ Fanatics	9.3%	51.9%

Conclusion

For May 11, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Kevin Gausman, Austin Wells and Drew Rasmussen. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.