MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Rangers play [5/11/2026]

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)

Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Rangers at +100 odds. A 55.9% probability produces an edge of 5.9%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Mariners vs. Astros over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 52.9%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)

Mariners vs. Astros over 8.5 runs carries a 4.9% edge and a probability of 52.9% at +108 odds, according to our model.

Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs (+130)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 47.1%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs at +130 odds shows a 3.6% edge, supported by a 47.1% probability in simulations.

Orioles +1.5 (+100)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 53.1%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

A 3.1% edge and 53.1% probability make Orioles +1.5 vs. Yankees at a value play in the Yankees vs. Orioles matchup, per our model.

Giants vs. Dodgers over 9.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)

Giants vs. Dodgers over 9.5 runs at +108 odds presents a 2.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 50.9%.

Rays vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 49.8%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)

Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Rays vs. Blue Jays at +113 odds, supported by an edge of 2.8%.

Orioles ML (+156)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 41.4%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Our model has uncovered value on Orioles ML at +156 odds. A 41.4% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 5/11/2026

As of 9:03AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers	Over 7.5 Runs	+100 @ novig	5.9%	55.9%
Mariners vs. Astros	Over 8.5 Runs	+108 @ kalshi	4.9%	52.9%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Over 9.5 Runs	+130 @ polymarket	3.6%	47.1%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Orioles +1.5	+100 @ kalshi	3.1%	53.1%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Over 9.5 Runs	+108 @ kalshi	2.9%	50.9%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Over 7.5 Runs	+113 @ polymarket	2.8%	49.8%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Orioles ML	+156 @ kalshi	2.4%	41.4%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/11/2026]

• Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)
• Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
• D-Backs vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)
• Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)
• Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 11, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Mariners vs. Astros matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.