Sparks vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [5/23/2026]

The Las Vegas Aces will take on the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Saturday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Aces game.

The Aces, who have the likes of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter, are set to take on the Sparks, who feature Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby and Ariel Atkins.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA game between the Sparks and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 79% chance of beating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Sparks (+9.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 181.5 points has a 70% chance of staying under.

Sparks vs. Aces odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sparks	Aces
Spread	+9.5 (-110)	-9.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+330	-420
Total	o181.5 (-106)	u181.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sparks vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sparks +9.5	-110
Moneyline	Sparks	+330
Total	Under 181.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sparks vs. Aces player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Sparks vs. Aces matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 27 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists for the Aces.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Plum	19	3	5	2	35
Dearica Hamby	18	9	3	0	38
Ariel Atkins	12	3	3	1	25
Erica Wheeler	9	2	3	1	20
Rae Burrell	9	3	1	1	18

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	27	9	4	1	55
Jackie Young	18	5	6	2	38
Chennedy Carter	16	3	3	0	28
Chelsea Gray	11	4	7	2	33
Jewell Loyd	11	3	2	3	22

Sparks vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Aces and Sparks at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.