Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [7/13/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Monday.
The Minnesota Lynx will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Target Center on Monday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Lynx game.
The Lynx, who have stars such as Kayla McBride, Olivia Miles and Courtney Williams, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Lynx an 85.4% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+12.5) have a 57.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 54.4% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Lynx odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12.5 (-102) | -12.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +614 | -669 |
| Total | o169.5 (-108) | u169.5 (+104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Lynx picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +12.5 | novig-102 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | novig+614 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | +104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +12.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Lynx player props
Looking for Phoenix vs. Minnesota WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kayla McBride is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.
For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 45 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Lynx prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 32 |
| Olivia Miles | 16 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| C. Williams | 16 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 37 |
| Natasha Howard | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| Nia Coffey | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
Mercury vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Lynx and Mercury at Target Center is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Monday, July 13, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with an 85.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
