May 23, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Saturday's picks include Sparks vs. Aces play [5/23/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, May 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/23.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, May 23, 2026—are live with the Bulls' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Chennedy Carter and Kamilla Cardoso lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 23, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 14.4% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.2% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.6% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 13.1% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.5% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 12.1% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 12.1% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.8% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.4% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 11.3% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 11.3% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.6% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 10.2% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.7% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.5% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.4% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.1% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 9.1% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 8.9% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 8.7% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 8.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.8% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 7.3% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 7.2% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 6.6% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.5% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 6.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 4.2% | +1100 | 12.5% |
| Kelsey Plum | Sparks | 3.0% | +1100 | 11.3% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.6% | +1500 | 7.8% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 1.3% | +1700 | 6.8% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.8% | +1100 | 9.1% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, May 23, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Chennedy Carter and Kamilla Cardoso lead our first basket projections, while Courtney Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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