May 19, 2026
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Read Article Reds vs. Guardians prediction: Why Cleveland is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Cleveland Guardians will face the Cincinnati Reds in MLB action at Progressive Field on Sunday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
The Guardians will have Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.74 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Brady Singer (2-3, 5.79 ERA) for the Reds.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Guardians as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Guardians game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Guardians prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Guardians, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Guardians a 57% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Guardians odds [5/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+132) |
| Moneyline | +136 | -161 |
| Total | o8.5 (-117) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Guardians picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -150 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +136 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Guardians game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Guardians and Reds at Progressive Field is scheduled to commence at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Progressive Field
Conclusion
We predict the Guardians, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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