May 22, 2026
Astros vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Read Article Orioles vs. Nationals prediction: Why Baltimore is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles will meet in MLB action at Nationals Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
Richard Lovelady (2-1, 1.96 ERA) will start for the Nationals, up against Brandon Young (3-1, 4.15 ERA) for the Orioles.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Nationals.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Orioles vs. Nationals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Orioles vs. Nationals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Orioles and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Orioles a 52% chance of beating the Nationals.
According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 10 runs has a 55% chance of going over.
Orioles vs. Nationals odds [5/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Orioles | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-146) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +105 |
| Total | o10 (-114) | u10 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Orioles vs. Nationals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Nationals +1.5 | -146 |
| Moneyline | Nationals | +105 |
| Total | Over 10 | -114 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 10 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Orioles vs. Nationals game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Nationals and Orioles at Nationals Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
