AFC West Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

NFC North Division Preview

Play this exact order of the AFC West standings for +450 on DraftKings!

Kansas City Chiefs

2022-23 Record: 14-3, Won Super Bowl

2023 Win Total: O/U 11.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed: OT Jawaan Taylor. Lost: DE Frank Clark, OT Orlando Brown

Outlook: The Chiefs emerged from their third Super Bowl appearance in four years with their second championship in that span. Fueled by NFL guru Andy Reid and 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City proved they are simply the best. They lost their #1 WR in Tyreek Hill in the offseason to replace him with the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster and a rotating cast of mid-tier WRs at best, and it didn’t matter. Patrick Mahomes excelled with Travis Kelce as his right-hand man. Though it was a thrilling final dance with the Eagles, it was the Chiefs’ year.

Will they repeat this success in 2023? The simple answer seems to be “yes.” They face the same level of competition within their division; the talented yet inferior Chargers, the overcooked Broncos and the Jimmy Garoppolo-helmed Raiders. That’s a pretty easy path to a division title, which will cost you -160 on most books, the priciest division winner odds alongside the 49ers.

You can grab them for +350 to win the AFC, which are the shortest odds by far. We give them a 19.5% chance of doing so. Most NFL fans and bettors would argue the Chiefs have two real challengers in the AFC, the Bengals and Bills, and we’d agree. At +600 to win the Super Bowl, they have the shortest odds although we give them the third-highest probability of winning at 11.2%.

Takeaway: Though it’s not what we’d call “value” based on our probabilities, the Chiefs are probably one of the safest teams for long-term betting based on competition and talent. The only real thing preventing them from a deep playoff run is injuries like any team faces.

Looking at their schedule, their Under 11.5 wins at +120 is looking pretty appealing. While their division isn’t strong, they’ll face the Eagles, Bills, Bengals, Jets, Lions and Dolphins and Vikings. Those are all decent to great teams and 4-3 against those teams and 4-2 in the division is absolutely within the realm of possibility. That puts them one loss away, which is certainly worth a look at the plus-money if you aren’t buying a repeat of last year’s success.

If you are buying another Chiefs’ domination, then consider them to have the most wins at +400, or to have exactly 12 wins (+475) or 13 wins (+500). Or, take them to sweep the AFC West at +650, something they’ve done twice in the past four years, including last season. And if you like that, Patrick Mahomes to repeat at as MVP at +700 gets even more appealing.

For the real fun bet, you have to go with the Super Bowl exact result of Chiefs to beat the Eagles (+2800) or Chiefs to beat the 49ers (+3500).

MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game

Los Angeles Chargers

2022 Record: 10-7, lost in Wild Card Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired: OC Kellen Moore. Drafted: WR Quentin Johnston

Outlook: The Chargers had a relatively quiet offseason with the hopes that acquiring former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore will break their offense through the ceiling Justin Herbert is butting heads with. Though they have built a truly talented roster, one of the best on paper as any fantasy player knows, they often get in their own way, be it coughing up late leads or Brandon Staley’s questionable fourth-down decisions. Some struggles are to be expected when going through a franchise rebuild with a young QB and head coach, but another season of coming up short will raise questions about whether or not the Chargers can deliver on the field for Justin Herbert, to whom they just delivered a five-year, $262.5 million contract.

Our prediction model gives them a 24% chance to win the AFC West, which comes with a slight edge in their odds of +340 which implies a 22.7% chance. They’re a slight sleeper in the AFC Champion market, as our fair odds make them about +1450 with a 6.7% probability, though they are priced at +1600. They may not be the most likely to win, but their value is notably better than the Jets for example, who are +1100 with just a 4.4% probability.

Takeaway: Expected to make the playoffs, but not make it very far, you can find some interesting value in the Chargers’ exact season result. +275 to lose in the Wild Card or +475 to lose in the Divisional Round are great options if you’re not placing a futures bet on Los Angeles to win the AFC. For +650, you can bet on Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards. He’s come in second the past two seasons to Patrick Mahomes, so the upside is clearly there.

If you are a believer in the Chargers, Justin Herbert has a respectable price of +1300 to win MVP, but he’ll likely need to guide his team to a division title to take hold of the narrative that fuels the award, so we wouldn’t recommend it if you don’t think they have that ceiling.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Denver Broncos

2022 Record: 5-12, last place in AFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired: HC Sean Payton. Signed: OT Mike McGlinchey

Outlook: Easily one of the teams with the most pressure on them to perform this season is the Denver Broncos. A disastrously bad season from Russell Wilson and the offense as a whole led to a discussion about whether or not Denver’s trade with Seattle for Russ ranked as the worst trade of all time. Taking a bloated contract to look like a team lost at sear under one-and-done coach first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett was about as bad as things could have gone for Denver.

Now, they bring in Saints living legend Sean Payton to right the ship and get Russell Wilson looking like prime Drew Brees (who mostly looked like prime Russell Wilson). Can they record their first season over .500 since 2016? With the talent on their roster and a little luck, it’s not unlikely. They have a talented yet fragile WR corps with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. RB Javonte Williams is expected to return from a major knee injury, and while he’ll likely need to get reacclimated, his presence will be a boon.

As far as futures go, our model gives the Broncos a 9.7% chance to win the AFC West, with their odds of +700 a total misprice as they should be closer to +1000. We give them a lowly 1.6% to win the AFC meaning there’s no value there unless you can get them for +5000 or better.

Takeaway: The Broncos to win either the division or conference is too unlikely to be worth betting on at the odds available. As a team on the outside looking in, they do have to make or miss playoffs odds available, with Yes at +180 and No at -215. If you do think they make the playoffs, their early exit odds of +450 to lose in the Wild Card or +1000 to lose in the Divisional Round are worth a look for a much better price.

Their Over/Under 8.5 for wins is dead center at -110 each way, showing even the books don’t know which side of the Broncos we’ll get this year. If you think they’re a nine-plus win team, take them at +425 to be the most improved team. That would be at least a four-win improvement, which is significant for any team to pull off.

Any player to have 10+ Rushing or Receiving TDs is a decent bet at +450 as Jerry Jeudy could pull this off if the offense fires on all cylinders.

Russell Wilson has a chance to pull off the “comeback from sucking” version of the Comeback Player of the Year Award, tied for the second favorite with Tua Tagovailoa at +2000. However, as we’ve covered in other division previews, Damar Hamlin is the favorite after his miraculous return from on-field cardiac arrest last season.

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Las Vegas Raiders

2022 Record: 6-11, 3^rd place in AFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers. Traded away: QB Derek Carr

Outlook: Gross. I don’t even want to write about this team But I will, because it’s my job and if I am going to be forced to endure Raiders football at any point this season, it will be because I have money invested in this trash heap. Appropriately priced at +1400 (AFC West) and +5500 (AFC), they are not a team to be taken seriously.

Outside of their competitive division, the Raiders have games against the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Lions Giants and Vikings. It’s going to be a long season in Las Vegas, meaning their win total of 6.5 might even be generous, hence it being juiced to the under. Even taking the alternate under of 5.5 is only +120 so the books clearly aren’t expecting much either.

Takeaway: The Raiders will be one of the worst teams in 2023. The books are giving you value on their odds to win the AFC West at +1400, and you know why? Because they can’t do it and every bet on them to do so is a donation. This team underachieves by its own expectations year in and year out, and with game manager extraordinaire Jimmy Garoppolo taking the reins this season, things will be no different.

As mentioned above, going under their win total seems the most likely but we want to find some nice plus-money value. Under 4.5 wins at +250 is a pretty good number, but what about grabbing their exact wins of 5 (+600) or 6 (+500)?

You could also consider them to have the fewest wins at +1200. While we don’t they’ll be that bad, it’s certainly possible and the other teams around them on the odds board aren’t that much better.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics models known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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