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2025 The Open Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions at Royal Portrush led by Heavy Favorite Scottie Scheffler
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
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The final major of the year, The Open, tees off on Thursday, July 17 at Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland and Dave Garofolo uses Dimers' predictive analytics to identify the best bets of the tournament.
It's time for the final major of the 2025 golf season as the best of the best head to Portrush in Northern Ireland for the 2025 edition of The Open at Royal Portrush Golf Club. Also known as The Open Championship or the British Open and teeing off from Thursday, July 17 through Sunday, July 20, a full field of 156 golfers compete on these links for a piece of golf history, including Xander Schauffele looking to go back-to-back after his 2024 victory.
Our model's best bets and The Open predictions reveal a bunch of value bets for this major event, headlined by the tournament's heavy favorite, the World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on The Open, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets across all sportsbook apps. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks, where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code "DIMERS".
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and is turning out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, and most recently cashing ladder plays on Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Sepp Straka at the Memorial and Russell Henley and Fleetwood again at the Travelers.
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Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLFWho Will Win the 2025 The Open?
Below are the five most likely winners of this year's final major, The Open, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
- Scottie Scheffler (21.4%) As the world No. 1 and most in‑form golfer—still fresh off winning the PGA Championship with a dominant performance—Scheffler enters Portrush as the betting favorite, though he’s still seeking a breakthrough in Open Championship results.
- Rory McIlroy (5.4%) Rory returns to his home-course at Royal Portrush, now armed with momentum from a runner‑up at the Genesis Scottish Open and a career Grand Slam victory at the Masters.
- Jon Rahm (4.7%) Although a major champion with high-level recent form, Rahm has yet to top an Open leaderboard—but his birdie‑fest third‑round 63 at Royal Liverpool in 2023 and three Top 10s in his past four outings show he's capable of contending over links.
- Bryson DeChambeau (3.5%) Despite his power and two U.S. Open victories, Bryson has struggled on links—missing the cut at Portrush in 2019 and posting just one top‑25 in seven Opens—making him a risky but intriguing long shot.
- Tommy Fleetwood (3.4%) Known for his consistency this year, Fleetwood has yet to secure a major title, but his form—including multiple strong finishes in Scotland—suggests he has the poise to break through this week if he can avoid another heartbreaking finish.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 21.4% | 49.3% | 64.2% | 78.5% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5.4% | 21.0% | 33.4% | 51.6% |
| Jon Rahm | 4.7% | 19.3% | 31.5% | 49.4% |
| Bryson Dechambeau | 3.5% | 14.5% | 26.5% | 44.3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3.4% | 15.1% | 26.5% | 43.2% |
What is the 2025 The Open Course and Layout?
Royal Portrush Golf Club returns to host The Open for the third time on its 7,381‑yard, par‑71 Dunluce Links. Designed by Harry Colt and refreshed by Martin Ebert for the 2019 Open, the course features fescue greens and dramatic links terrain, with rugged bunkers, blind shots, and coastal exposure demanding pinpoint ball‑striking.
The tournament again carries a purse north of $17 million, with the winner expected to collect over $3.1 million, plus 600 FedEx Cup points. Defending champion Xander Schauffele returns after his triumph at Royal Troon in 2024, but the field is stacked: home favorite Rory McIlroy will seek redemption in Northern Ireland after winning the Masters in April, alongside heavyweights like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau.
Two-time Open champion Padraig Harrington will have the honor of hitting the opening tee shot to kick off the week. With a truly elite field, dramatic coastal conditions, and historic course setup, Royal Portrush promises a memorable tournament.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
The Open Betting Preview and Picks
We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. The biggest names are in the field but with 156 golfers, there's plenty of value to be found on both favorites and lower tier guys.
We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.
Scottie Scheffler (+550 on Bet365)
There’s no debate—Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet.
He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (2.640), Tee-to-Green (2.278), Off-the-Tee (0.708), and Approach the Green (1.298)—an unprecedented statistical profile that highlights his dominance in all aspects of the game. While he ranks 44th in driving accuracy, his raw power and elite ball control often compensate, particularly when playing from tough lies, and he's holed out more than a few daunting shots this year alone, making him a prime (but popular candidate) for the DraftKings "King of the Course" promo.
Scheffler has yet to win a Claret Jug, but he’s finished T8 or better in two of his four Open Championships tries, showing he can handle links conditions and swirling coastal winds. Royal Portrush demands precise approach play and elite decision-making—two traits Scheffler has in spades. He's not finished worse than T7 in a major this year.
With Dimers projecting his fair odds at around +365 (21.4%), there’s clear value compared to the +550 line on bet365 sportsbook (15.4% implied), making Scheffler a justifiable favorite and smart outright play to take one more step towards the career Grand Slam.
Sepp Straka (+5000 on Bet365)
Sepp Straka continues to impress as one of the most underrated tee-to-green performers on tour.
He ranks 3rd in SG: Total (1.419), 7th in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.081), and 4th in SG: Approach (0.865), which is exactly the combination needed to succeed on a firm, undulating layout like Royal Portrush.
His 17th-ranked driving accuracy makes him one of the more reliable fairway finders among longshots, which is crucial for avoiding the penal rough and pot bunkers dotting the landing zones.
Overall majors have not been kind to Straka as of late - he's been cut all three times this year and secured one Top 20 finish in four tries last year. However, he peaked with a T2 at The Open back in 2023.
The implied probability at +5000 on bet365 is 2.0%, while Dimers gives him a 2.5% chance (fair at +3900), suggesting subtle value for those looking to take a shot on a statistically sound underdog with a skillset that fits the venue.
A $5 bet on Straka returns $250 in profit and can also unlock a $150 new-user bonus with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.
Russell Henley (+6500 on DraftKings)
Russell Henley’s game is built for ball-striking tests like Portrush. Ranked 5th in SG: Total (1.345) and 9th in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.051), Henley thrives in precision-based settings.
He ranks 14th in driving accuracy, which is crucial at a course where landing position often outweighs sheer distance. His SG: Around-the-Green (0.504) ranks 6th, indicating a deft touch on the runoffs and tight lies typical of links golf. However, his -0.028 SG: Off-the-Tee (116th) suggests that distance and consistency off the tee remain issues when compared to the elite field.
Henley’s past Open finishes include a respectable solo 5th last year, and a T20 back in 2016, showing he’s capable of hanging around. He's ranked as high as he's ever been and has three consecutive finishes of T5, T10 and T2.
With sportsbook odds at +6500 (1.52% implied) and Dimers rating him at 2.3% for fair odds of +4250, Henley provides sneaky value as a longshot whose profile fits a classic Open test.
You'll also find Henley in our PGA vs. LIV matchups parlay for the The Open Championship.
Keegan Bradley (+10000 on DraftKings)
Keegan Bradley is quietly putting together one of his most well-rounded seasons in years.
He ranks 8th in SG: Total (1.157) and 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.200), underpinned by a solid 0.353 SG: Off-the-Tee (28th) mark.
His 10th-ranked Around-the-Green numbers (0.448) suggest he can scramble well if he misses Portrush’s small, elevated greens. That said, he’s 48th in driving accuracy and 112th in putting, which are red flags when it comes to links-style conditions where distance control and pace on fescue greens are crucial. That tracks when you consider he's been cut in five consecutive tries at the major as well.
Bradley’s more positive Open Championship history includes three Top 20 finishes, but his most recent came in 2016, but his current season run is quite strong, with a win and two other Top 10s in his past five events.
At +10000, his implied win probability is just 1%, while Dimers gives him a 1.7% chance, implying big value at fair odds of +5800 for a proven veteran with a strong tee-to-green game.
Bradley also profiles as a ladder play for his placements, beginning with a Top 20 finish at 31.8% and odds of +330.
Ben Griffin (+10000 on bet365)
Ben Griffin enters The Open sitting 14th in SG: Total (1.044) and 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green (0.844).
His SG: Off-the-Tee (0.265, 46th) and Approach (0.411, 32nd) numbers show that he can hold his own against elite competition.
However, his 94th-ranked driving accuracy may be a dealbreaker at Royal Portrush, where players who miss the fairway are often punished harshly. Griffin’s putting and short game are above average, which could help him scrape together pars on tough links terrain.
He's been cut at both tries at The Open, but as a two-time winner in 2025, as well as two Top 10 finishes in majors this year, his momentum is as strong as ever.
With +10000 odds implying a 1% win probability, and Dimers setting him at 1.7% for the same +5800 fair odds as Bradley, there’s a bit of hidden value—but he remains a boom-or-bust candidate possibly better suited for placement markets, including +350 for a Top 20 finish at 30.9%.
$10 returns a $1,000 profit on Griffin - or consider betting $5 to return a $150 new-user offer with the bet365 bonus code, win or lose.
2025 The Open Prop Bets
You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full The Open predictions with Dimers Pro.
In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got placement bet value to consider for this week's The Open as well.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+330 on BetRivers)
An up-and-down year for Matsuyama sees him enter The Open off of tying his best finish (t13) since his season-opening win at The Sentry.
Matsuyama finished as high as T6 in his debut at The Open, with his next best finishes of T18, T14 and T13.
His driving stands out as his weakest area, but he excels on Approach and Around the Green.
He could shoot himself out of this with errant tee shots, but gives himself a chance to clean up in between, especially with his 18th-best scrambling from the rough and 4th-best sand save %.
At 28.6%, DimersBOT says he should be +250 for a Top 20 finish while you can grab him at +330 on BetRivers.
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
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- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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