WNBA Projections Data Suggests Rookie of the Year Race Should be Closer between Kiki Iriafen and Paige Buckers

From a glance at the WNBA odds, this year’s WNBA Rookie of the Year race appears to mirror last season’s, when Caitlin Clark dominated headlines from the start. After being selected No. 1 overall in the WNBA Draft, Dallas Wings rookie Paige Bueckers opened as the clear frontrunner at -310 and has since shortened to -750 at bet365 sportsbook.

But while Bueckers remains the odds-on favorite, the real value may lie in Washington’s Kiki Iriafen—an under-the-radar contender quietly building a serious case.

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The Case for Kiki Iriafen to win WNBA Rookie of the Year

From a data-based perspective, the player most likely to challenge Bueckers for Rookie of the Year honors is none other than Washington’s standout rookie, Kiki Iriafen. She's currently averaging 14.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game—just shy of the Dimers projections, which have her expected output average at 15.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists.

The Mystics selected Iriafen directly after fellow rookie Sonia Citron with the sixth overall pick in the WNBA Draft, making her one of three top-six picks by Washington. A polished finisher from USC, Iriafen arrived WNBA-ready around the rim, and it’s showing early.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Iriafen was fourth in the WNBA ROTY race, including behind her own teammate Sonia Citron. She's leap-frogged everyone to move into second place, dropping form +2000 to +750 in that two-week span.

How's she doing it?

After finishing last in rebounding in 2023, the Mystics now rank fourth through seven games—and Iriafen has played a major role in that turnaround, as she ranks fourth in the league herself and already has four double-doubles, scoring in double digits in every game so far. Alyssa Thomas set the single-season WNBA record with 28 double-doubles last year; Iriafen is currently tracking toward 23, which would tie Angel Reese’s 2024 mark. If she stays on this trajectory, her impact will be hard to overlook.

If she cracks the Top 15 in scoring—she’s 21st right now—and Washington makes the playoffs, she should be in contention, if not favored.

Consider their overall team performance as well. At the quarter-season mark, the Mystics are on the playoff bubble at 4-6 with a chance to make the postseason after missing last year's. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings are 1-10, dead last in the WNBA.

No matter how good you are, can you truly be the MVP if your team has nothing to show for it?

With Bueckers back from concussion protocol, the next few weeks should shape this race further, either pushing the two closer together or widening the gap, but with the way Iriafen is playing, it shouldn't stay this way for long.

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