WNBA player props today: Thursday's best props include Jovana Nogic [5/21/2026]

Jovana Nogic over 2.5 3-pointers made (-110)

• Edge: 14.2%
• Probability: 66.6%
• Projection: 4.2
• Game: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Phoenix' Jovana Nogic over 2.5 3-pointers made. A probability of 66.6% gives this play an edge of 14.2% at -110 odds.

Gabby Williams under 14.5 points scored (-104)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Projection: 11.8
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Gabby Williams’s points scored prop shows a 4.8% edge at -104 odds, according to our model, which projects her for 11.8 points scored on the under 14.5 line.

Breanna Stewart under 19.5 points scored (-102)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Projection: 17.0
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Breanna Stewart under 19.5 points scored, with simulations showing a 55.3% probability and a 4.8% edge at -102.

Sabrina Ionescu under 15.5 points scored (-114)

• Edge: 1.9%
• Probability: 55.2%
• Projection: 13.1
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Our model projects Sabrina Ionescu to record 13.1 points scored today, creating an edge of 1.9% on the under 15.5 line at -114 odds.

Natasha Howard over 7.5 rebounds (-104)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Projection: 8.3
• Game: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Natasha Howard over 7.5 rebounds for Minnesota, showing an edge of 3.3% at -104 odds.

Jonquel Jones under 13.5 points scored (-114)

• Edge: 0.7%
• Probability: 54.0%
• Projection: 11.6
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Jonquel Jones’s points scored prop shows an edge of 0.7% at -114 odds, according to our model, which projects her for 11.6 today.

Veronica Burton under 6.5 assists (-102)

• Edge: 1.9%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Projection: 6.1
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Our model projects Veronica Burton for 6.1 assists for Golden State, creating an edge of 1.9% on under 6.5 at -102 odds.

Gabby Williams under 4.5 rebounds (-102)

• Edge: 0.3%
• Probability: 50.8%
• Projection: 4.3
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Gabby Williams for 4.3 rebounds, creating value on the under 4.5 line at -102 odds and a 0.3% edge.

Kelsey Plum over 5.5 assists (+108)

• Edge: 1.8%
• Probability: 49.9%
• Projection: 5.5
• Game: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)

A 1.8% edge on the over 4.5 assists line makes Kelsey Plum a value play in Sparks vs. Mercury, with our model projecting her for 5.5 assists at +108 odds.

Kayla Thornton over 6.5 rebounds (+124)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 49.2%
• Projection: 6.3
• Game: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Kayla Thornton for 6.3 rebounds here, creating a 4.6% edge on the over 6.5 line at +124 odds.

WNBA player prop summary: Thursday, May 21, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 4:58AM ET:

Conclusion

For May 21, 2026, our WNBA prop bets feature players such as Jovana Nogic, Gabby Williams and Breanna Stewart. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.