Best WNBA bets today: Thursday's picks include Sparks vs. Mercury play [5/21/2026]

Today’s best WNBA bets for May 21, 2026 are here, with Sparks vs. Mercury and Tempo vs. Lynx among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s WNBA schedule.

Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest WNBA odds to uncover real betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.

List of WNBA best bets tonight [5/21, updated 7:34PM ET]

Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 WNBA bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, May 21, 2026.

Sparks vs. Mercury under 177.5 points (+102)

• Edge: 16.0%
• Probability: 65.5%
• Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on under 177.5 points in Sparks vs. Mercury at +102 odds. A 65.5% probability produces an edge of 16.0%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.

Tempo vs. Lynx under 172.5 points (+106)

• Edge: 14.8%
• Probability: 63.3%
• Matchup: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Tempo vs. Lynx under 172.5 points carries a 14.8% edge and a probability of 63.3% at +106 odds, according to our model.

Wings vs. Dream over 173.5 points (-106)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 59.8%
• Matchup: Wings vs. Dream (7:30PM ET, Friday)

Wings vs. Dream over 173.5 points at -106 odds shows a 8.3% edge, supported by a 59.8% probability in simulations.

Tempo +5.5 (+100)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Matchup: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

A 5.8% edge and 55.8% probability make Tempo +5.5 vs. Lynx at a value play in the Tempo vs. Lynx matchup, per our model.

Fever ML (-239)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 75.9%
• Matchup: Valkyries vs. Fever (7:30PM ET, Friday)

Fever ML at -239 odds presents a 5.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 75.9%.

Dream ML (-186)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 70.3%
• Matchup: Wings vs. Dream (7:30PM ET, Friday)

Our model finds value on Dream to win at -186 odds, supported by an edge of 5.3%.

Mercury ML (-130)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 61.3%
• Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on Mercury ML at -130 odds. A 61.3% probability produces a 4.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.

Valkyries vs. Fever over 168.5 points (-104)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Matchup: Valkyries vs. Fever (7:30PM ET, Friday)

A 4.1% edge on a 55.1% probability makes over 168.5 points at -104 odds a solid value play in today's Valkyries vs. Fever matchup.

Valkyries +5.5 (+100)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 53.7%
• Matchup: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on Valkyries +5.5 at +100 odds. A 53.7% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making Valkyries the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Tempo ML (+208)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 35.8%
• Matchup: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Tempo to defeat Lynx at +208 odds shows a 35.8% probability and a 3.3% edge.

WNBA best bets summary: Thursday, 5/21/2026

As of 7:34PM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [5/21/2026]

• Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Wings vs. Dream (7:30PM ET, Friday)
• Valkyries vs. Fever (7:30PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for May 21, 2026, featuring plays such as under 177.5 points in the Sparks vs. Mercury matchup and under 172.5 points in the Tempo vs. Lynx matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.