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WNBA First Basket Predictions for Friday Include Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally [5/23/2025]
Our expert analysis on Friday's WNBA first basket market.

This Friday, May 23rd, it's time for an exciting day of WNBA basketball, headlined by the Sun's matchup against the Lynx at 7:30PM ET.
After evaluating Friday's WNBA simulations early this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our data analysts have announced their best first basket bet of the day.
Additionally, this article reveals the WNBA players our predictive analytics model has projected to have the highest probability of scoring the first basket in their respective matchups on Friday.
Let's dive into today's WNBA first basket news and updates.
WNBA Players to Watch Today
Based on the most recent injury reports, Friday's WNBA games are expected to showcase big names such as Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Napheesa Collier, each with a high probability of scoring first when they take to the court.
Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [WNBA Cheat Sheet for May 23, 2025]
Thanks to simulating Friday's WNBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.
Player (Team) | First Basket Probability |
---|---|
Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 20.3% |
Satou Sabally (Mercury) | 19.8% |
Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 16.0% |
A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.0% |
Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 13.8% |
Nneka Ogwumike (Storm) | 13.7% |
Brittney Sykes (Mystics) | 13.2% |
Tina Charles (Sun) | 12.5% |
Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 12.2% |
Temi Fagbenle (Valkyries) | 12.2% |
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely WNBA player to score the first basket in any of today's matchups is Alyssa Thomas, with a probability of 20.3%.
Following Thomas closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Satou Sabally at 19.8% and Napheesa Collier at 16.0%.

Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: WNBA First Basket [Friday, 5/23/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's WNBA slate thousands of times, our leading predictive analytics model has discovered the best WNBA first basket bet for you to make on Friday.
For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.
Alyssa Thomas To Score First Basket
- Odds: +550
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 20.3%
- Game: Mercury vs. Storm (10:00PM ET)
Our model has identified the best WNBA first basket bet for Friday's WNBA slate in the game between the Mercury and Storm. The bet is on Alyssa Thomas (PHX) at odds of +550 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 5.0% according to our analysis.
Not only does Thomas present an edge according to the model, but she is also the number one most likely first basket scorer for today, as noted in the list above.
Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props
WNBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Friday's data-driven WNBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.
For today's full list of WNBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!
WNBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds
- Read the latest news alerts from the official WNBA feed
- Check updated WNBA odds
- Find broadcasting and streaming options for today's WNBA games
WNBA Schedule for Today [5/23/2025]
- Sun vs. Lynx (7:30PM ET, Friday)
- Mercury vs. Storm (10:00PM ET, Friday)
- Valkyries vs. Sparks (10:00PM ET, Friday)
- Mystics vs. Aces (10:00PM ET, Friday)
Tonight's WNBA First Basket Picks: May 23, 2025
This WNBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on WNBA first basket picks for May 23, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial standards.
All of Dimers' WNBA first basket predictions for Friday, May 23, have been made after rigorous data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate WNBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you plan to use today's WNBA first basket picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Understanding Betting Edge
At Dimers, an "edge" in betting signifies our belief that an event's probability is higher than the best available WNBA odds suggest. A higher betting edge indicates a greater likelihood of success. However, it's essential to remember that no bet is guaranteed, and responsible gambling practices are crucial for long-term success.
More About WNBA
This article is part of our WNBA player props and WNBA best bets series.
For more WNBA betting content, we have WNBA trends for every game, as well as daily WNBA betting news and the latest WNBA title odds and predictions.