Mercury vs. Fire prediction: Why Portland is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [6/5/2026]

WNBA action continues on Friday at 10:00 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Portland Fire at Moda Center.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Fire as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Fire game.

The Fire, with the likes of Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Emily Engstler, are set to take on the Mercury, featuring DeWanna Bonner, Jovana Nogic and Monique Akoa-Makani.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Fire a 72.4% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Fire (-4.5) have a 56.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 159.5 points has a 57.7% chance of going over.

Mercury vs. Fire odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Fire
Spread	+4.5 (-110)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+150	-180
Total	o159.5 (-112)	u159.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Fire picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Fire -4.5	-105
Moneyline	Fire	-180
Total	Over 159.5	-112

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Fire to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Fire player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Friday's Phoenix vs. Portland matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

DeWanna Bonner is expected to lead the Mercury with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 1 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fire.

When evaluating the first basket market, Natasha Mack is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.9% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
DeWanna Bonner	12	6	1	2	26
Jovana Nogic	12	1	2	2	19
M. Akoa-Makani	10	3	4	1	23
Natasha Mack	9	10	2	0	31
Noemie Brochant	7	4	1	1	18

Fire prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	12	2	4	1	24
Megan Gustafson	9	4	1	1	19
Emily Engstler	8	6	2	1	27
B. Carleton	8	4	2	2	19
Sarah Barker	7	4	2	1	18

Mercury vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Fire and Mercury at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Friday, June 5, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Fire, with a 72.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.