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WNBA First Basket Predictions for Wednesday Include Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally [5/21/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Our expert analysis on Wednesday's WNBA first basket market.
This Wednesday, May 21st, we have another exciting day of WNBA basketball upon us, headlined by the Wings' matchup against the Lynx at 8:00PM ET.
After going over Wednesday's WNBA simulation results this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our team of data analysts have produced their best first basket bet of the day.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20BASKETBALL Get Dimers Pro Additionally, this article reveals the WNBA players our predictive analytics model has selected as having the greatest chance of scoring the first basket in their respective matchups on Wednesday.
Let's dive into today's WNBA first basket news and updates.
WNBA Players to Watch Today
Based on the most recent injury reports, Wednesday's WNBA slate is expected to showcase players such as Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Napheesa Collier, each with a high probability of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.
Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [WNBA Cheat Sheet for May 21, 2025]
Thanks to simulating Wednesday's WNBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.
| Player (Team) | First Basket Probability |
|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 20.7% |
| Satou Sabally (Mercury) | 19.2% |
| Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 16.5% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 14.1% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 13.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 12.9% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 12.6% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 11.3% |
| Sami Whitcomb (Mercury) | 10.1% |
| DiJonai Carrington (Wings) | 9.5% |
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely WNBA player to score the first basket in any of today's games is Alyssa Thomas, with a probability of 20.7%.
Following Thomas closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Satou Sabally at 19.2% and Napheesa Collier at 16.5%.
Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: WNBA First Basket [Wednesday, 5/21/2025]
After simulating the result of today's WNBA slate thousands of times, our independent predictive analytics model has found the best WNBA first basket bet for you to make on Wednesday.
For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.
Alyssa Thomas To Score First Basket
- Odds: +500
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 20.7%
- Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
Our model has identified the best WNBA first basket bet for today's WNBA slate in the game between the Sparks and Mercury. The bet is on Alyssa Thomas (PHX) at odds of +500 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.0% according to our analysis.
Our model not only highlights Thomas for her 4.0% betting edge but also ranks her as the number one most likely first basket scorer for today, as seen in the above list.
Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props
WNBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Wednesday's data-driven WNBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.
For today's full list of WNBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!
Get All Eight First Basket Picks for Wednesday Get Dimers Pro WNBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds
- Read the latest news alerts from the official WNBA feed
- Check updated WNBA odds
- Find broadcasting and streaming options for today's WNBA games
WNBA Schedule for Today [5/21/2025]
- Wings vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Wednesday)
- Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Wednesday)
Today's WNBA First Basket Picks: May 21, 2025
This WNBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on WNBA first basket picks for May 21, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.
All of Dimers' WNBA first basket picks for Wednesday, May 21, have been generated after thousands of data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate WNBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you plan to use today's WNBA first basket predictions for your personal gambling, it's important that you practice responsible gambling and manage your bankroll effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Understanding Betting Edge
The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
More on WNBA
This article is part of our WNBA player props and WNBA best bets series.
For more WNBA betting content, we have WNBA trends for every game, as well as daily WNBA betting news and the latest WNBA title odds and predictions.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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