May 15, 2026
WNBA player props today: Friday's best props include Alyssa Thomas [5/15/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, May 16, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/16.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, May 16, 2026—are live with the Hawks' Chennedy Carter projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Carter, A'ja Wilson and Allisha Gray lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 16, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.4% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 13.9% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.5% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.3% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.5% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.1% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.9% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.9% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.3% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.3% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 1.0% | +1800 | 6.3% |
| Jordin Canada | Dream | 0.6% | +1100 | 8.9% |
| Naz Hillmon | Dream | 0.2% | +1200 | 7.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, May 16, 2026, Chennedy Carter, A'ja Wilson and Allisha Gray lead our first basket projections, while Chelsea Gray shapes as the strongest value play at +1800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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