Jul 3, 2026
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Read Article Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Minnesota favored to win Friday's WNBA game [7/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Friday.
The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx will lock horns in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Friday, with tipoff at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Lynx a slight edge with a 54.1% win probability over the Liberty.
The Liberty, who have star players such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, are set to take on the Lynx, who feature Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Lynx vs. Liberty matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA game between the Lynx and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lynx a 54.1% chance of beating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+2.5) have a 55.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 174.5-point over/under has a 63.1% chance of staying under,.
Lynx vs. Liberty odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lynx | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -138 | +120 |
| Total | o174.5 (-108) | u174.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lynx vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty +2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | +120 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -106 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lynx vs. Liberty player props
Betting on Minnesota vs. New York WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Natasha Howard is expected to lead the Lynx with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.
When evaluating the first basket market, Breanna Stewart is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Lynx prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Howard | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kayla McBride | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| Olivia Miles | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| C. Williams | 15 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 35 |
| Nia Coffey | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Lynx vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Liberty and Lynx at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Friday, July 3, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 54.1% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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