Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/2/2026]
Get Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Thursday.
WNBA action continues on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET as the Seattle Storm lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, with the likes of Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Valeriane Ayayi, will face off against the Storm, featuring Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Flau'jae Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 65.7% chance of defeating the Storm.
According to our model, the Mercury (-3.5) have a 52.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 167.5-point over/under has a 50.4% chance of staying under,.
Storm vs. Mercury odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total | o167.5 (-110) | u167.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -3.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -175 |
| Total | Under 167.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Mercury player props
Looking for Seattle vs. Phoenix WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Alyssa Thomas is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists for the Mercury.
For early game action, the data identifies Dominique Malonga as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| N. Hiedeman | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| F. Johnson | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Awa Fam | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Jordan Horston | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 47 |
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Storm vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Mercury and Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 65.7% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
