Liberty vs. Aces Picks: Three bets to make in WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final

Bet: Jackie Young top points scorer (+249 on DraftKings)

With A'Ja Wilson ruled out of the Aces' matchup against the Liberty in the Commissioner's Cup championship game due to a right leg injury, the path to a Vegas player being the top scorer funnels almost entirely to Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.

Young carries the second-highest point projection in Dimers' model at 16.4 points and is the only player on the board projected for multiple made threes, which adds extra scoring upside relative to a player like Carter who doesn't shoot much from beyond the arc.

She's also priced as essentially even money to clear 20 points, and across the full slate only Breanna Stewart sits at shorter odds than her, with the two of them the lone players under +300 to reach that milestone.

Given Las Vegas will need to replace a huge chunk of Wilson's usage, Young projects as the clearest beneficiary of those extra shots and possessions.

Bet: Jonquel Jones to record a double double (+163 on DraftKings)

Jonquel Jones is averaging 8.7 rebounds a game, the second-best rebounding mark of her four-year run with the Liberty, and she carries the top rebounding projection in tonight's matchup at 8.9.

With A'Ja Wilson sidelined, the Aces' interior rebounding takes a real hit without its player who is fourth in rebounding (9.4 RPG) in the league.

Wilson's absence could lead to lower-quality looks from the supporting cast and more rebounds up for grabs. Scoring isn't much of a concern for Jones, with single-digit point totals only three times all season and a 13.7 point projection tonight, putting her on a clean path to pairing points with boards for the double-double.

Alternatively, consider a rebounds ladder at the 10 (+129), 11 (+304), and 12 (+329) marks for a reasonable way to play the same read on her workload tonight, but going above the Dimers projections by a larger margin.

Bet: Jackie Young first basket scorer (+650 on FanDuel)

Young's first-basket probability of 15.3% is the highest of anyone in the game, which implies roughly a +550 fair price, meaning +650 carries a 2.0% edge.

With Wilson out, Young projects as the primary on-ball scoring option and shot-creator for Las Vegas, which should ideally translate into the first touch and an early look at the baskets, possibly even from deep right out of the gat, backed by her game-high three-point projection.

That combination of high probability and a price that perhaps hasn't fully adjusted for Wilson's absence makes this one of the top props of the game, albeit a longshot.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.