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Read Article Fever vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [7/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Las Vegas Aces will face the Indiana Fever in WNBA action at T-Mobile Arena on Sunday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Fever vs. Aces game.
The Aces, who have the likes of Chennedy Carter, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Fever, who feature Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Tyasha Harris.
Fever superstar Cailtin Clark will miss the game though, with the USBWNT guard set to be on the sidelines for this one.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fever vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Fever and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Aces a 66.2% chance of beating the Fever.
According to our model, the Aces (-3.5) have a 53.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 181.5-point over/under has a 69.8% chance of staying under,.
Fever vs. Aces odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fever | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-112) | -3.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -158 |
| Total | o181.5 (-105) | u181.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fever vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Aces -3.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -158 |
| Total | Under 181.5 | -105 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fever vs. Aces player props
WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Indiana vs. Las Vegas game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at T-Mobile Arena.
Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 21 points, 1 rebounds and 3 assists, while Chennedy Carter is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kelsey Mitchell is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15.5% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fever prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 21 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| Aliyah Boston | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 39 |
| Tyasha Harris | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| S. Cunningham | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| M. Billings | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chennedy Carter | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 28 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 31 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
Fever vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Aces and Fever at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 66.2% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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