Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints prediction: Cats favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 19 matchup [7/16/2026]
Get Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Geelong Cats will take on the St Kilda Saints in Australian Football League (AFL) action at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the Saints vs. Cats game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cats vs. Saints prediction: Who will win Round 19 game?
Our famous predictive model gives the Cats a 66.2% chance of beating the Saints.
According to our model, the Cats (-11.5) have a 51.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 180.5 points has a 52.0% chance of staying under,.
St Kilda vs. Geelong odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Saints | Cats |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +150 | -189 |
| Line (Spread) | +11.5 (-115) | -11.5 (-115) |
| Total | o180.5 (-115) | u180.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Saints vs. Cats picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cats -11.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Cats | -189 |
| Total | Under 180.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cats to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cats vs. Saints game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Cats and Saints at GMHBA Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats
- Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: GMHBA Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 66.2% win probability, will likely beat the Saints in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
