Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/11/2026]
Get Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Carlton Blues and Hawthorn Hawks will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 5:35 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Blues game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 61.2% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Hawks and Blues each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 156.5-point over/under has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.
Hawthorn vs. Carlton odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -185 | +145 |
| Line (Spread) | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-115) |
| Total | o156.5 (-115) | u156.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -8.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +145 |
| Total | Under 156.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football matchup between the Blues and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 61.2% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
