Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers prediction: Lions favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Brisbane Lions and Essendon Bombers are scheduled to meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at The Gabba on Sunday, starting at 2:40 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner of the Bombers vs. Lions game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Bombers prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?
Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 98.4% chance of beating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Lions (-62.5) have a 60.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 187.5 points has a 50.9% chance of going over,.
Essendon vs. Brisbane odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bombers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +1400 | -10000 |
| Line (Spread) | +62.5 (-115) | -62.5 (-115) |
| Total | o187.5 (-115) | u187.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bombers vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions -62.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Lions | -10000 |
| Total | Over 187.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions -62.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Bombers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football action between the Lions and Bombers at The Gabba is scheduled to start at 2:40 AM ET.
- Who: Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 2:40 AM ET/11:40PM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 98.4% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
