Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers prediction: Why Demons are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers predictions for AFL Sunday.
AFL action continues on Sunday at 1:15 AM ET as the Richmond Tigers take on the favored Melbourne Demons at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Demons as the most likely winner of the Tigers vs. Demons game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Demons vs. Tigers prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?
Our leading predictive model gives the Demons an 89.3% chance of beating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Tigers (+40.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.
Richmond vs. Melbourne odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tigers | Demons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +650 | -1250 |
| Line (Spread) | +40.5 (-115) | -40.5 (-115) |
| Total | o172.5 (-115) | u172.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tigers vs. Demons picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tigers +40.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Tigers | +650 |
| Total | Under 172.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Demons vs. Tigers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football action between the Demons and Tigers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Demons, with an 89.3% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
