Predictive Analytics Model Simulates Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles Spread, Total and MVP Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Model Simulates Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles Spread, Total and MVP Computer Picks

We're not too far away from a meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII  on Sunday, February 12 at 6:30PM ET. We've been looking forward to this matchup for long enough, with both teams having been amongst the best in the NFL all season. We already did a relatively brief early dive on what the outcome of this game will be, but now we're taking a closer look at some of the implications of our predictive analytics model's projected stats and score for this one. We're running through exactly how some bets would play out if our predicted score is accurate, and we do have confidence in our artificial intelligence. With that said, keep reading to see into the future and find out how the Super Bowl might go. This could help you bet on some player props and possibly even the MVP award

RELATED: Check out our First & Anytime TD Scorer predictions for Super Bowl LVII

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Projected Player Stats

Passing Stats

Chiefs Eagles
P. Mahomes - 281 yards J. Hurts - 239 yards

Rushing Stats

Chiefs Eagles
I. Pacheco - 57 yards, 31% TD M. Sanders - 72 yards, 32% TD
P. Mahomes - 23 yards, 18% TD J. Hurts - 54 yards, 60% TD
J. McKinnon - 18 yards, 34% TD K. Gainwell - 26 yards, 13% TD

Receiving Stats

Chiefs Eagles
T. Kelce - 80 yards, 55% TD A. Brown - 84 yards, 41% TD
J. Smith-Schuster - 55 yards, 19% TD D. Goedert - 51 yards, 32% TD
M. Valdes-Scantling - 40 yards, 24% TD D. Smith - 51 yards, 34% TD
J. McKinnon - 28 yards, 34% TD Q. Watkins - 17 yards, 9% TD
S. Moore - 23 yards, 14% TD K. Gainwell - 14 yards, 13% TD

Chiefs vs. Eagles Predicted Score

Our DimersBOT predicted a 26-24 win for the Eagles directly after the two Conference Championship Games, and nothing has changed on that front. With that result, Kansas City would cover the small 1.5-point spread on this game, but anybody betting Philadelphia should be willing to spend up a little for the moneyline. The last thing you want is to lose on a one-point Eagles win, which isn't exactly impossible. 

As for the total, we have the teams combining to score only 49 points. With that said, we're not expecting the better weather in Arizona to result in shootout, even if the players will be a lot more comfortable than they were when they were freezing their butts off in Kansas City and Philadelphia last weekend. This is actually a play that our model really loves, with the analytics giving the Under a 53% chance of hitting. 

 

Chiefs vs. Eagles Player Props

There are quite a few ways you can go with your player props, but our model's biggest edge is betting against Jerick McKinnon. In our simulation of the game, McKinnon ended up rushing for only 18 yards, with Isiah Pacheco leading the backfield with 57 yards. Last game, Pacheco had 85 total yards in the win over the Bengals.

Kansas City could turn to the rookie to come through in the biggest game of the year, as he is coming off one of his best games of the season. He ran hard against the Cincinnati Bengals and deserves the first crack in the Super Bowl. That would mean less time on the field for McKinnon, who would likely only see significant time if the Chiefs end up falling behind by a large amount. Based on our score prediction, that is very unlikely. So, while our model sees edges everywhere, we're riding with the Under on McKinnon's rushing yards prop. That's our second-biggest edge for this game, as our model gives it a 71.6% chance of hitting. 

 

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Simulated MVP

With our model predicting a 26-24 win for the Eagles, Jalen Hurts looks like our MVP. Our model has him totaling 293 yards in a win over the league's best quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, and the analytics also say that Hurts will likely end up rushing for a touchdown in this one. With a touchdown or two through the air, combined with a touchdown on the ground, it'd be pretty hard to deprive Hurts of this honor. 

If you're not sold on Hurts, the other way you can go is by backing Haason Reddick. The 28-year-old has recorded 3.5 sacks throughout the playoffs, and he is a real threat to make some plays against a beatable offensive line. Our predictive analytics didn't come up with defensive predictions, but it'd take a good performance from Philadelphia's defense to hold Mahomes and Co. to 24 points. So, while it's rare for defensive players to win the MVP, you can go with Reddick at +4000 — or perhaps back Hurts and then sprinkle a little on the linebacker. 

 

Zachary Cohen has been writing about betting and fantasy sports since his days at the University of Wisconsin. His work has since been featured for prominent players like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel and FOX Bet. Zach is extremely passionate about all things sports, but he's especially into the NBA and college athletics. Zach is also a sucker for bad comedies and reality TV. 

Twitter: @_ZCO

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