May 21, 2026
Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/21/2026]
Read Article Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction: Pittsburgh favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions for MLB Thursday.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet in MLB action at Busch Stadium on Thursday, starting at 1:15 PM ET.
The Cardinals will start Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA), while the Pirates are going with Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Cardinals.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Pirates vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Cardinals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 51% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Cardinals odds [5/21/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+136) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +110 |
| Total | o7.5 (+100) | u7.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Cardinals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cardinals +1.5 | -160 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +110 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates at Busch Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:15 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 1:15 PM ET/10:15AM PT
- Venue: Busch Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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