Jun 22, 2026
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Read Article Phillies vs. Nationals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [6/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 6:45 PM ET as the Philadelphia Phillies square off with the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.32 ERA) will start for the Nationals, while the Phillies have opted for Tim Mayza (2-1, 2.97 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Nationals a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Phillies vs. Nationals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Nationals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Phillies and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Nationals a 51.5% chance of defeating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 63.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 50.5% chance of going over,.
Phillies vs. Nationals odds [6/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (+158) |
| Moneyline | +106 | -124 |
| Total | o9.5 (-110) | u9.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Nationals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies +1.5 | -185 |
| Moneyline | Phillies | +106 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -110 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Phillies to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Nationals game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Nationals and Phillies at Nationals Park is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Nationals, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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