Jun 22, 2026
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Read Article Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [6/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions for MLB Monday.
The Toronto Blue Jays will face the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Rogers Centre on Monday, commencing at 7:07 PM ET.
The Blue Jays will start Shane Bieber (0-0, 0.00 ERA), up against Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.10 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 53.5% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Astros vs. Blue Jays matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Blue Jays a 53.5% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 63.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 51.3% chance of going over,.
Astros vs. Blue Jays odds [6/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+172) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -125 |
| Total | o7.5 (+102) | u7.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Blue Jays -1.5 | +172 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +108 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | +102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Blue Jays and Astros at Rogers Centre is scheduled to start at 7:07 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
- Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 53.5% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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