PGA Championship Best Bets: Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 Finishes

We are hot on the heels of the 105^th PGA Championship which tees off Thursday, May 18 at Oak Hill Country Club in New York State. This will be golf’s second major of the season, after The Masters in which Jon Rahm claimed victory this past April. Two-time winner Justin Thomas is the reigning champion, and with a loaded field featuring the world’s best golfers, there’s ample value to be found, particularly in placement markets.

Make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year, including Jon Rahm as the Masters winner, Wyndham Clark to win Wells Fargo, and hitting our +1291 head-to-head matchups parlay last week.

🥳 +1291 PARLAY CASH 🥳

We end the AT&T Byron Nelson PGA tournament with a bang with our H2H model nailing our weekend matchups parlay 🔥

✅ Scott to beat Power
✅ Day to beat Kim
✅ Kuchar to beat Lee
✅ Bramlett to beat Rileyhttps://t.co/yeToNgXvPE

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) May 14, 2023

Course Background

This will be the thirteenth time New York has hosted the major and will feature a course that was fully redesigned in 2019. The cut line after 36 holes will be the lowest 70 golfers (and all ties). It is a par-70 totaling 7,394 yards, making it 231 yards longer than the last time the major graced Oak Hill. It features two par 5s and bentgrass greens.

Best PGA Championship Placement Bets

Favorites Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are enticing outright options but we’re looking beyond outfights and down the whole board to find value in golfers to finish Top 5, 10 and 20.

Before placing any bets on the tournament, be sure to head to our Best Sportsbooks page and capitalize on the promotional offers available to you, particularly at DraftKings where new users can score a +1000 boost to any golfer’s odds, and all users can grab a +300 boost on top of that.

GOLF OFFER: Get a +1000 odds boost to any players' odds for this week's PGA Championship with DraftKings Sportsbook

Xander Schauffele to Finish Top 5: +360 on DraftKings

Schauffele is one of our favorite outright bets to win this tournament, but that’s not where the value stops. Our model is giving Xander a 25.4% chance to finish in the top five, a shade under Scottie Scheffler at 29.5%, but with significantly better odds at +360. His implied probability is 21.8%, giving us an edge in the odds and on paper. Schauffele’s last three finishes have been: 2^nd, 4^th and T-10. He’s in form and has all the tools to make yet another run at a major.

 

Tyrrell Hatton to Finish Top 5: +750 on DraftKings

The resilient Englishman was one of our Top 5 picks at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week, and battled his way back into contention to secure a T-5 finish. He faces stiffer competition this week but we are backing him to at least make a run at the top prize again. DimersBOT gives Hatton a solid 13% chance to crack the Top 5 by Sunday’s end. He’s finished inside the top 5 four times this year, including his past two tournaments. There’s nothing sweeter than backing a longer shot play in form.

MORE: Our Overall Individual Golfer Rankings

Wyndham Clark to Finish Top 10: +600 on FanDuel

Two weeks removed from his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, Wyndham Clark will look to keep his solid year rolling. He’s notched three other Top 10 finishes this year, topping the likes of Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele more than once along the way. He’s well above his World No. 32 spot, all the way up to 11^th in our own in-house golf rankings. Our model gives him a 20% chance and his odds of +600 imply just a 14.2% chance of a Top-10 finish, so we’re getting excellent value on Clark at the PGA Championship.

 

Joaquin Niemann to Finish Top 10: +700 on FanDuel

With the PGA Championship being of golf’s four major championship’s, LIV golfers will be allowed to compete the same as they were able in The Masters. More than a few of them made their run at a green jacket, while the collective powers behind the PGA TOUR performed some black magic wizardry to prevent such from happening. One of them, Joaquin Niemann, gets some solid value for a Top-10 finish at Oak Hill. He’s finished Top 8 in his last two LIV tournaments, and Top 16 at The Masters. The difference between 54 (LIV) and 72 holes (PGA) doesn’t seem to affect him much. His 19% probability from our model is good enough for a 6.5% edge in value.
Also bet: Top 20 at +320 with a 34.7% probability

MORE: PGA Championship Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay and Picks

 

Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 20: +450 on DraftKings

Though Tony Finau (+105) and Patrick Cantlay (+100) make decent plays at or near even money, we’re looking for a little more value in these Top 20 picks. Enter Denny McCarthy. While +450 implies just an 18.2% chance to finish in the Top 20, our simulation model gives the 30-year-old a hefty 25% probability. He has six such finishes this year, including four of his last five.

 

Brendon Todd to Finish Top 20: +850 on FanDuel

Long(er) shot value play anyone? One of our head-to-head picks this week, Brendon Todd gets a 17.2% chance from DimersBOT to notch a Top 20 finish, compared to the 10.5% implied by his odds. He’s not the most inspiring pick, with two missed cuts and five outside 20 finishes sandwiched between a pair of Top 10 performances. This is a value play, as his odds should realistically be closer to those of McCarthy’s, worth what I like refer to as a little bit of “pizza money” on this bet.