Our "Sweet Spot" Parlay at +522 odds for NFL, NBA and Bowl Game betting on Saturday, December 27

Parlay leg 1: Chargers ML vs. Texans

The first Sweet Spot bet in this parlay is in the late afternoon clash between the Texans and Chargers, with our model identifying a 2.3% edge on Los Angeles to win as home favorites, with our NFL moneyline favorites in this edge range returning a 19.7% ROI across 46 bets this season.

Houston brings an NFL-best 7-game win streak into So-Fi Stadium in a showdown between two of the top four defenses in the league.

Even though the Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, while the Texans have not, L.A. may have just a bit more to play for.

The Texans sit as the 7-seed and will likely stay there based on the strength of schedule remaining for the Jaguars and Colts, the two teams they could shuffle places with. Houston needs Jacksonville to lose to jump them in the AFC South, while they simply need to beat the Colts in Week 18 to lock up their playoff spot.

The Chargers, on the other hand, can force an AFC West title game next week if they beat the Texans, as a win over Denver in Week 18 would give them a 6-0 sweep of the division and the tiebreaker needed to win the title, along with an outside shot at the No. 1 seed. 

The turnover battle will be key to this game, which features a low total despite the offensive upside for both teams and could be decided in the red zone, where the Chargers (50% opponent conversion, ranked 4th) have a significant advantage over the Texans (60%, 23rd)

At a 56.9% probability, our model is firmly behind the Chargers to win and keep their division hopes alive.

Parlay leg 2: Bulls ML vs. Bucks

We move to the night slate and the NBA as we look to the Bulls to win vs. the Bucks, a Sweet Spot that has returned a 16.8% ROI over 92 moneyline bets this season.

This bet features our highest probability of all three at over 60% while still giving us a little value and a  2.0% edge as our model says this should be no shorter than -156.

Chicago looks to build on its five-game winning streak and get over .500 for the first time since the end of November, while avenging their previous meeting, a 126-110 loss that marked the start of their struggles.

Chicago opened as five-point favorites but have dropped to 2.5 with Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially making his return, listed as GTD after an eight-game absence with a calf injury. This is taken into account for our model, which projects a lower output than usual for Giannis, with a projection of 25 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists, which could suggest a lighter workload.

Based on our model's slight lean of 51.4% to the under on the game total 235.5, the Bulls' defense steps up just enough to come away with a win alongside standout performances form Josh Giddey (19 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST) and Coby White (20 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST).

Parlay leg 3: LSU vs. Houston under 42

For the final Sweet Spot play, we go back to the gridiron and the Texas Bowl featuring LSU and Houston for their first meeting since 2000.

Supported by a 58.7% model probability and a 6.3% edge, our best bet is on the game total to go under 42 points, with this market returning a positive ROI of 1.5%. This bet also comes with our High Value signal, indicating an edge over 5%.

LSU enters bowl season in clear transition mode, and it shows up on both sides of the ball, dealing with heavy personnel losses, including starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and several key defenders opting out or transferring.

The Tigers opened the season with playoff expectations but never found consistency, and now head into this matchup short-handed.

Houston, meanwhile, brings far more stability into this game. The Cougars will have the majority of their roster, including starting QB Connor Weigman, rank inside the top 40 defensively, and project to play a controlled, methodical game that limits explosive plays, especially against an offensive unit in flux.

Two ways to bet on the Sweet Spot

Bettors looking for a potentially lucrative payout should roll the three Sweet Spot bets above into a single +522 parlay, where a $25 wager would return $130.52 in profit.

However, each of these bets comes with its own value and is recommended as a straight wager for the most long-term profitability. This way, if just two of the three bets hit, you'll still walk away with some profit.

For the best of both worlds, consider allocating a small portion of your unit size as a side wager for the parlay alongside the straight bets, rather than investing completely into an all-or-nothing parlay.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.