The Open Championship parlay bet: Best PGA vs. LIV matchup picks
We've built a PGA vs. LIV matchups parlay for the final major of the 2026 PGA TOUR season at +559 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Before the 154th Open Championship tees off on Thursday, July 16 at Royal Birkdale, Dimers has you covered with our full golf predictions and outright picks for the latest run at the coveted Claret Jug.
In addition to our best bets for The Open Championship, we've selected three matchup picks where our model identifies a clear favorite over the other, specifically around PGA vs. LIV golfers, which can be played as a +559 golf parlay.
To make betting on this market easier, Dimers has an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits any two golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR, exclusively available to our Dimers Pros.
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The Open Championship parlay picks at +559 odds
To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at FanDuel Sportsbook. We simply enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Leg 1: Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Jon Rahm (-138)
First up is a battle of top contenders, and the Dimers model gives the local Matt Fitzpatrick a healthy head-to-head edge at 53.4% to 42.1%.
Fitzpatrick is in the finest season of his career, having already picked up three wins and notched top-25 finishes in the first three majors of the year, a run that has him firmly among the pre-tournament favorites.
Rahm, by contrast, has been inconsistent, coming off a shared runner-up at the PGA Championship in May, he then missed the cut at the U.S. Open a month later, and while his driving was better at the Scottish Open, he still didn't hit many fairways, which will be more of a problem at Birkdale's tighter lanes.
With Fitzpatrick projected well ahead across every finishing marker (Top 5, Top 10, Top 20) and Rahm's ball-striking waning at the worst time, this matchup pick leads our parlay.
Leg 2: Cameron Smith to beat Kristoffer Reitan (+100)
Cameron Smith is the clear model favorite at 53.2% to 41.5% and he'll hope this major resembles his 2022 victory rather than his three attempts since (T33, two missed cuts).
He's roughly double Kristoffer Reitan's chances at every finishing threshold, even though Smith's 2026 has been up and down; he ended a streak of six straight missed cuts at majors with a T7 at the PGA Championship.
Reitan, a Norwegian rookie in the field via DP World Tour rankings qualifier, lacks any real major-championship pedigree by comparison, with just 5 appearances since 2018, two of which were missed cuts and no better than T30 in any of them.
Plus-money on Smith is an outright value play as his 53.2% probability says he should be around -115 at best.
Leg 3: Joaquin Niemann to Alex Fitzpatrick (-110)
While the odds put this one as the closest matchup (-110 to -120), the Dimers model makes it the msot one-sided of the three at 61.7% to 33.0%.
Alex Fitzpatrick has been in excellent form, but he did just miss the cut at the Scottish Open and doesn't have much major experience with three appearances since 2023.
Meanwhile, Niemann arrives red-hot. He finished outside the Top 20 in just one of his past six LIV tournaments and turned in a T18 at the PGA Championship and a T7 last month at the US Open.
The one caveat is major-specific history, as Niemann's best Open finish to date is only a T53, but with his current form and the projection data to back it up, our model's strong lean towards the Chilean looks justified.
+559 Open Championship parlay picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +559 on FanDuel Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Jon Rahm | 53.4% | -138 |
| Cameron Smith to beat Kristoffer Reitan | 53.2% | +100 |
| Joaquin Niemann to Alex Fitzpatrick | 61.7% | -110 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
