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Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Yankees favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Monday.
The Baltimore Orioles will square off with the New York Yankees in MLB action at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Monday, commencing at 6:35 PM ET.
The Orioles will send Brandon Young (3-1, 4.36 ERA) to the mound, while the Yankees will counter with Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.03 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Yankees as the most likely winner of the Yankees vs. Orioles game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Yankees and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 59% chance of defeating the Orioles.
According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Yankees vs. Orioles odds [5/11/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -172 | +150 |
| Total | o9 (+100) | u9 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Orioles +1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Orioles | +150 |
| Total | Over 9 | +100 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Orioles and Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to commence at 6:35 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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