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Read Article Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Washington Nationals predictions for MLB Thursday.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 4:05 PM ET as the New York Mets take on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
Cade Cavalli (2-2, 4.05 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Nationals, up against David Peterson (2-4, 5.40 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Nationals.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Mets vs. Nationals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 52% chance of defeating the Nationals.
According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Nationals odds [5/21/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+150) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Moneyline | -112 | -104 |
| Total | o8 (-105) | u8 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Nationals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +150 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -112 |
| Total | Over 8 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Nationals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Nationals and Mets at Nationals Park is scheduled to commence at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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