Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Mets vs. Nationals MLB game on May 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Mets
David Peterson 2-4, 5.40 ERA
2
1
Nationals Park
Nationals
Cade Cavalli 2-2, 4.05 ERA
Nationals Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Mets
0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 1
Nationals
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Mets
    100%
  • Nationals
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Keibert Ruiz grounds out to second base, Marcus Semien to Mark Vientos.
Quick Box Score
Mets Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Benge RF5010002.2000.400
2 B. Bichette SS4012002.2500.500
3 J. Soto LF3000011.0000.250
4 M. Vientos 1B4000002.0000.000
5 B. Baty 3B4020000.5001.000
6 M. Semien 2B4010002.2500.500
7 A. Ewing CF2000012.0000.333
8 M. Melendez DH2100001.0000.500
9 L. Torrens C4110000.2500.500
Nationals Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Wood LF4010002.2500.750
2 C. Mead 1B4000001.0000.000
3 J. Vivas 3B1000001.0000.000
4 C. Abrams SS2000020.0000.500
5 D. Crews RF3000010.0000.250
6 D. Lile DH4020001.5001.250
7 L. García PH1000000.0000.000
8 J. Tena PH1000001.0000.000
9 K. Ruiz C4120000.5001.000

Mets vs. Nationals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Mets vs. Nationals
  • Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
  • Time: 4:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Nationals Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Mets favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Mets 50¢, Nationals 49¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Mets: 51%
  • Nationals: 49%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Mets a win probability of 51%, while the Nationals have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mets are more likely to beat the Nationals in the MLB game at Nationals Park on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Mets vs. Nationals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.