Jun 23, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Read Article Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Tuesday's WNBA game [6/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Las Vegas Aces will square off with the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Tuesday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Aces game.
The Aces, who have star players like A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and NaLyssa Smith, are set to take on the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Satou Sabally and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces a 56.4% chance of defeating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+2.5) have a 52.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 58.9% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Aces odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -134 |
| Total | o177.5 (-108) | u177.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty +2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -134 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -112 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Aces player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Liberty vs. Aces matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
For early game action, the data identifies A'ja Wilson as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 39 |
| Satou Sabally | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Jonquel Jones | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Pauline Astier | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 48 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 37 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 32 |
| Jewell Loyd | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
Liberty vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Aces and Liberty at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 56.4% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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