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NCAA March Madness Betting Picks - Saturday March 26, 2022
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dimers Staff
We've got two elite 8 games tonight, with the Dimers sharps providing two spread picks and an over/under for the action.
It's Saturday March 26, 2022, and, as always, we've simulated all of the day's CBB games 10,000 times each to determine where the value lies for basketball bettors across the United States as we prepare to crown a new College Basketball Champion on April 4.
With March Madness betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day, check out our top plays for Saturday's NCAAM games.
Given it's March, there's no doubt you're looking to bet on some College Hoops over the coming weeks? Well, our new Dimers Pro service is here to help!
Tap below to read all about it.
March Madness Picks Saturday March 26, 2022
Houston vs. Villanova, 6:00PM ET
Spread Pick by The Degenerates
Last Sunday we cashed Villanova -5, and again we plan on taking them and the points Saturday against Houston. Jay Wright and Villanova have valuable experience in late March as they are 3-0 in their last three Elite Eight appearances. Starters Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels were freshmen on the 2018 title team and are trying to lead their team back one last time.
Villanova is one of the only teams in the country that ranks in the top 30 of KenPom rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency, coming in at 9th and 29th in the respective categories. The Wildcats only allow 63.6 ppg and have played solid defense all tournament long, containing stars like Hunter Dickinson to well below their averages. On top of this, the Wildcats are the best free-throw shooting team in the nation (shoot it at 82%!).
This should be a terrific matchup with Houston’s defense against Villanova's offense. To be successful against Houston, Jay Wright will lean on his short rotation of efficient guards to guide the offense through this game. The Wildcats lead the Big East in 3-point scoring, and this will be a key factor in this Elite Eight matchup. Collin Gillespie, Caleb Daniels and Justin Moore all shoot over 34% from three-point range.
We were a little surprised to see the line open up at +2 for Villanova but think it’s due to some uncertainty and questions behind how bad Gillespie’s injury at the end of the game was. Gillespie is a tough kid and the heart and soul of this Wildcats team and we expect him to be out on the court giving his all Saturday. The Wildcats FT shooting, defensive and offensive efficiency will win them this game and book their trip to the Final Four.
PICK: Villanova +2 (-110)
DimersBOT probability: 53%
🏀 Houston vs. Villanova Simulator
🔥 Betting Preview: Houston vs. Villanova
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Houston vs. Villanova, 6:00PM ET
Over/Under Pick by Greg Waddell (Sleepers)
Villanova and Houston will present us with a battle between two of the most well-coached teams in college basketball. Both are perfectly fine with playing a slow tempo, and both have asserted their will against less disciplined teams in comfortable wins through three rounds.
I like this one to push over because I trust both teams to continue to execute offensively at high levels. Despite the likely slow pace, one of these teams would need a real off night not to hit the number and I can’t see either squad scoring in the 50s with a Final Four on the line. Expect Villanova’s patience to yield back cuts and open threes. Expect Houston’s shot makers to come up clutch when it matters most. Over it is.
PICK: Total points OVER 127.5 (-110)
DimersBOT probability: 51%
🏀 Houston vs. Villanova Simulator
🔥 Betting Preview: Houston vs. Villanova
Arkansas vs. Duke, 8:40PM ET
Pick by Prospector Sam
On the list of “Things Sam Hates Doing,” betting on Duke falls somewhere between enduring a hangover after a big night out and listening to Baby Shark on repeat for 40 hours like a Guantanamo detainee. I, like many, loathe everything about the program and watching Coach K push towards a possible title to cap off his indulgent retirement tour is painful to say the least. But, I’m a gambler, and I’m willing to put all of my interests and principles aside for the sake of winning money, so let’s go ahead and put our chips on the Blue Devils here.
To put things simply, this is just a bad matchup for the Razorbacks. The way to beat Duke is to slow the game down and force them into a half court offense, like Texas Tech did in the first half of the Sweet 16 to great success. If you try to score with them and open up the pace of play, Duke just has too much talent and will eat you alive (see: the second half of the sweet 16). Unfortunately, Arkansas plays at one speed and it’s not a slow one. This team is 31st in the country in possessions per game and dont have the discipline or experience running the slow half court offense to execute it. They’ll run with Duke and try to beat them basket for basket, but that’s a battle they just aren’t likely to win. I think Duke wins this game comfortably, and marches on to the Final Four without a huge test here. Part of me is praying that I’m wrong though.
PICK: Duke -3.5 (-135)
DimersBOT probability: 49%
🏀 Arkansas vs. Duke Simulator
🔥 Betting Preview: Arkansas vs. Duke
Want to take Dimers Pro for a test drive? Well, new customers can open an account with BetMGM, deposit $10 and place a bet, and then get FREE access to Dimers Pro during the CBB Tournament.
Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every college basketball game on Saturday via our CBB Bet Hub, where we deliver you CBB predictions and suggested bets, or check out the CBB Betting News section.
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