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NBA player props today: Friday's best props include DeMar DeRozan [1/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get NBA player props today with projections for Friday's games.
Dimers' NBA props are live for January 16, 2026, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of DeMar DeRozan, Reed Sheppard and T.J. McConnell.
Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Bulls vs. Nets and Timberwolves vs. Rockets, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.
List of NBA prop bets for Friday, 1/16
Sourced from 20+ total props today, below are the top ten NBA player props for January 16, ranked by edge.
DeMar DeRozan over 1.5 steals (+178)
- Edge: 13.5%
- Probability: 49.5%
- Projection: 1.5
- Game: Wizards vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Sacramento's DeMar DeRozan over 1.5 steals. A probability of 49.5% gives this play an edge of 13.5% at +178 odds.
Reed Sheppard over 1.5 steals (+194)
- Edge: 11.8%
- Probability: 45.8%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)
Reed Sheppard’s steals prop shows an 11.8% edge at +194 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 steals on the over 1.5 line.
T.J. McConnell over 1.5 steals (+194)
- Edge: 11.7%
- Probability: 45.7%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Pelicans vs. Pacers (7:00PM ET)
The data highlights value on T.J. McConnell over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 45.7% probability and an 11.7% edge at +194.
Pascal Siakam over 1.5 steals (+178)
- Edge: 10.7%
- Probability: 46.7%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Pelicans vs. Pacers (7:00PM ET)
Our model projects Pascal Siakam to record 1.3 steals today, creating an edge of 10.7% on the over 1.5 line at +178 odds.
Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 10.2%
- Probability: 48.3%
- Projection: 1.4
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals for Minnesota, showing an edge of 10.2% at +162 odds.
Zion Williamson over 1.5 steals (+178)
- Edge: 9.9%
- Probability: 45.9%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Pelicans vs. Pacers (7:00PM ET)
Zion Williamson’s steals prop shows an edge of 9.9% at +178 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 today.
Andrew Nembhard over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 7.9%
- Probability: 46.0%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Pelicans vs. Pacers (7:00PM ET)
Our model projects Andrew Nembhard for 1.2 steals for Indiana, creating an edge of 7.9% on over 1.5 at +162 odds.
Amen Thompson over 5.5 assists (+122)
- Edge: 7.6%
- Probability: 52.6%
- Projection: 6.0
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)
Our expert modelling projects Amen Thompson for 6.0 assists, creating value on the over 5.5 line at +122 odds and a 7.6% edge.
Donte DiVincenzo over 1.5 steals (+138)
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 48.7%
- Projection: 1.4
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)
A 6.6% edge on the over 5.5 steals line makes Donte DiVincenzo a value play in Timberwolves vs. Rockets, with our model projecting him for 1.4 steals at +138 odds.
Julius Randle under 7.5 rebounds (+102)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 55.7%
- Projection: 6.5
- Game: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET)
Simulations project Julius Randle for 6.5 rebounds here, creating a 6.2% edge on the under 7.5 line at +102 odds.
NBA player prop summary: Friday, January 16, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 1:49AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards vs. Kings | DeMar DeRozan over 1.5 steals | +178 @ FanDuel | 13.5% | 49.5% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Reed Sheppard over 1.5 steals | +194 @ FanDuel | 11.8% | 45.8% |
| Pelicans vs. Pacers | T.J. McConnell over 1.5 steals | +194 @ FanDuel | 10.7% | 46.7% |
| Pelicans vs. Pacers | Pascal Siakam over 1.5 steals | +178 @ FanDuel | 10.7% | 46.7% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 10.2% | 48.3% |
| Pelicans vs. Pacers | Zion Williamson over 1.5 steals | +178 @ FanDuel | 9.9% | 45.9% |
| Pelicans vs. Pacers | Andrew Nembhard over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 7.9% | 46.0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Amen Thompson over 5.5 assists | +122 @ FanDuel | 7.6% | 52.6% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Donte DiVincenzo over 5.5 steals | +138 @ FanDuel | 6.6% | 48.7% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Julius Randle under 7.5 rebounds | +102 @ FanDuel | 6.2% | 55.7% |
Conclusion
For January 16, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as DeMar DeRozan, Reed Sheppard and T.J. McConnell. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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