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Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Timberwolves vs. Rockets NBA game on January 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
105
110
Jan 17, 2:30AM Toyota Center
Jan 17, 2:30AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timberwolves | 34 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 105 |
Rockets | 29 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 110 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timberwolves | 34 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 105 |
Rockets | 29 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 110 |
Q4 00:00 Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:58 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:15 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:35 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:37 Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:00 Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:22 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:01 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:50 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 6:19 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
End of 4th Quarter.
Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark)
Timberwolves 60 second timeout
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
Timberwolves personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-108
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-109
Timberwolves turnover
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-106
Jaden McDaniels misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-105
Rockets personal foul
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Timberwolves personal foul
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Timberwolves turnover
Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
96-101
Timberwolves personal foul
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
94-101
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Julius Randle defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets 60 second timeout
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
91-100
Rockets turnover
Jump ball. (Amen Thompson gains possession)
Timberwolves turnover
Julius Randle turnover (lost ball)
Julius Randle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
89-94
Naz Reid defensive rebound
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
88-94
+3
Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
88-93
Timberwolves defensive rebound
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
Timberwolves turnover
Timberwolves personal foul
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
85-90
Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Mike Conley turnover
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Timberwolves defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
84-84
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
82-84
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate)
Rockets personal foul
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
81-80
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Timberwolves turnover
Timberwolves violation
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith)
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Jaylen Clark)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Instant replay
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark)
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
+3
Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
79-74
Timberwolves personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
76-73
Timberwolves lineup change (Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Joan Beringer, Donte DiVincenzo)
Rockets turnover
+3
Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
74-72
Rockets turnover
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Timberwolves offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
71-71
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 1
71-72
Rockets offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
71-69
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Naz Reid defensive rebound
Timberwolves personal foul
Rockets offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
66-67
Rockets personal foul
Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Julius Randle defensive rebound
Timberwolves personal foul
Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves personal foul
Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 1
66-65
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
66-62
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Rockets turnover
Rockets personal foul
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
Timberwolves personal foul
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
57-59
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Rockets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Timberwolves personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 1
57-56
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
55-53
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Timberwolves turnover
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Jaylen Clark)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
55-50
Rockets personal foul
Naz Reid misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Timberwolves offensive rebound
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
54-48
Timberwolves turnover
Julius Randle defensive rebound
Naz Reid defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
51-45
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
Julius Randle misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
50-43
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
48-41
Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound
Timberwolves turnover
Rockets personal foul
Rockets personal foul
Timberwolves turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
45-36
Rockets 60 second timeout
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
42-34
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
42-32
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
40-30
Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Naz Reid offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
36-30
Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Naz Reid defensive rebound
Timberwolves personal foul
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
34-29
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
31-23
Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
30-20
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
31-20
+3
Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
29-20
+2
Naz Reid makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
29-17
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
27-16
+3
Naz Reid makes three point jump shot (Bones Hyland assists)
27-15
Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith)
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
24-15
Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
Naz Reid defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul (Donte DiVincenzo draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith, JD Davison)
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark)
Rockets offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. technical foul
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Naz Reid blocks Jabari Smith Jr.'s two point driving layup
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Jaden McDaniels makes two point floating jump shot
21-13
Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Jaden McDaniels's two point running reverse layup
+2
Rudy Gobert makes two point tip layup
19-13
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
14-13
Kevin Durant offensive rebound
Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Other)
+1
Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
14-8
+1
Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
13-8
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, JD Davison)
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot
12-8
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Julius Randle makes two point running dunk (Rudy Gobert assists)
12-6
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Donte DiVincenzo misses three point jump shot
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot
10-6
Alperen Sengun misses two point pullup jump shot
Jaden McDaniels personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point putback layup
7-4
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Julius Randle misses two point running dunk
Amen Thompson turnover (lost ball) (Mike Conley steals)
Timberwolves defensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses two point running dunk
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Jaden McDaniels misses three point stepback jump shot
Donte DiVincenzo blocks Amen Thompson's two point dunk
+2
Jaden McDaniels makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
5-0
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets offensive rebound
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Jaden McDaniels blocks Kevin Durant's two point driving layup
Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
Rudy Gobert vs. Alperen Sengun (Josh Okogie gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Timberwolves vs. Rockets
- Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 222.5
- Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +143, Rockets -160
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Timberwolves: 39%
- Rockets: 61%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Timberwolves 109-112 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Timberwolves a win probability of 39%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Timberwolves in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Timberwolves vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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