Suns vs. Thunder prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 26, 2026

The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to beat the Phoenix Suns on Monday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Suns vs. Thunder prediction gives Oklahoma City a 75.7% chance of winning at Paycom Center, but the latest odds suggest value in betting on the Suns to cover the +9.5 spread.

Suns vs. Thunder: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Thunder 114-106 Suns
• Thunder win probability: 75.7%
• Suns win probability: 24.3%
• Suns +9.5 spread: 55.3% cover probability
• Over 220.5 points: 50.8% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Suns vs. Thunder odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Suns moneyline: 23¢ (Novig)
• Thunder moneyline: 78¢ (Polymarket)
• Suns +9.5: 50¢ (Novig)
• Thunder -9.5: 51¢ (Novig)
• Over 220.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)
• Under 220.5 points: 49¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Suns +9.5 (50¢)

The Thunder may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is the Suns to cover the +9.5 spread at 50¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Suns have a 49.5% chance of covering the spread, while our model puts that probability at 55.3%.

That's a 5.8% edge in the Suns' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Suns vs. Thunder player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Thunder star also expected to add 6.2 assists and 4 rebounds. The Suns have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Thunder's two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 28.1 points
• Devin Booker (Suns): 24.1
• Dillon Brooks (Suns): 17.2
• Jalen Green (Suns): 16.9
• Jared McCain (Thunder): 16.1

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Suns vs. Thunder predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Monday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Suns vs. Thunder predictions.

Suns vs. Thunder game details

• Matchup: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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