Mavericks vs. Heat prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 26, 2026

The Miami Heat are favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Mavericks vs. Heat prediction gives Miami a 75.3% chance of winning at Kaseya Center, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 239.5 points.

Mavericks vs. Heat: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Heat 122-115 Mavericks
• Heat win probability: 75.3%
• Mavericks win probability: 24.7%
• Mavericks +8.5 spread: 52.2% cover probability
• Under 239.5 points: 53.4% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Mavericks vs. Heat odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Mavericks moneyline: 27¢ (Novig)
• Heat moneyline: 74¢ (Novig)
• Mavericks +8.5: 51¢ (Novig)
• Heat -8.5: 50¢ (Novig)
• Over 239.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)
• Under 239.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 239.5 (50¢)

The Heat may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 239.5 total points at 50¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 50.0% chance of the game finishing under 239.5 points, while our model puts that probability at 53.4%.

That's a 3.4% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Mavericks vs. Heat player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Heat star also expected to add 11.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists. The Mavericks have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Heat's two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 31.9 points
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 20.9
• Bam Adebayo (Heat): 20.2
• Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): 18.9
• P.J. Washington (Mavericks): 14.9

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Mavericks vs. Heat predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Monday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Mavericks vs. Heat predictions.

Mavericks vs. Heat game details

• Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: Kaseya Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.