Spurs vs. Knicks prediction: New York to win, Victor Wembanyama projected for big game in Game 4 of 2026 Finals
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks predictions for NBA Playoffs Wednesday.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks NBA prediction for Game 4 of the Finals series.
The New York Knicks will face the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Knicks as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Knicks lineup will feature stars like Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, while the Spurs will look to Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Knicks prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NBA FInals matchup between the Spurs and Knicks, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Knicks a 57.5% chance of defeating the Spurs in Game 4 of the Finals. Our predicted final score in Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals has the Knicks winning 109-107.
According to our model, the Knicks (-2.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 216.5-point over/under has a 51.0% chance of going over.
Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4 odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Bet Type
Spurs
Knicks
Spread
+2.5 (-115)
-2.5 (-105)
Moneyline
+114
-130
Total
o216.5 (-108)
u216.5 (-110)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Knicks picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Knicks to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4 player props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Spurs vs. Knicks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Madison Square Garden.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 29 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Jalen Brunson is projected to have 25 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists for the Knicks.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Victor Wembanyama striking first with a 14.7% probability.
Victor Wembanyama is projected to score 29 points tonight.
The winner of the 2026 NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks gets the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Game 4 of the best-of-seven series is at New York's Madison Square Garden.
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Conclusion
We predict the Knicks, with a 57.5% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs in Game 4 of the 2026 Finals.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
