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MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Saturday, May 4

MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Saturday, May 4

It's time to chase those home runs on Saturday, May 4! As you're likely aware, we love our home run props at Dimers. From single edge plays to round robins and "Dinger Tuesday", we're always on the hunt for the next guy (or guys) to go yard on any given MLB night.

If you follow us on Twitter/X, then you know we drop Home Run Round Robins every day that we have the data available to do so. You can read our detailed guide into Round Robin strategy here, and it's not just exclusive to baseball, either!

You can find upwards of 50+ home run props on full game days within Dimers Pro. While we lean on our Dimers Prodata to identify our favorite round robin targets, we use a multitude of resources to narrow down our "final five" from the DimersBOT selections.

In an effort to continue building up our content offerings, as well as give you further insight into our Round Robin process, we're going to roll out this daily article as a companion piece to the final round Robin parlay we go with.

MORE: How to Build Home Run Parlays with Dimers Pro

Depending on when you check this article throughout the day, you'll find updates including our earliest HR Prop edges available, our short list of potential candidates before we narrow them down, and finally, our five picks with a little insight into why we chose them.

Let's get right into it!

Best Home Run Prop Bets - Saturday, May 4

Below, you'll find the Top 5 Home Run Prop edges available to Dimers Pro as of 10:00 AM ET this morning. More often than not, at least one or two of these players will find their way into our final round robin play.

DimersBOT loves the Royals tonight up against the Rangers' Dane Dunning who's allowed 7 home runs this season:

RELATED: Detailed Home Run Round Robin Strategy

Today's Home Run Targets

On first glance, these are the players we'll be researching today, Saturday, May 4. These may come from our top probabilities, hot hitters, good matchups - whatever stands out first. Some may get added into this list, while others are taken off as we dig deeper into our data. This list will populate throughout the day, so check back later if it's blank!

Potential Home Run Picks - May 4, 2024
Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)
Alex Bregman (Astros)
Willy Adames (Brewers)
Jake Cronenworth (Padres)
Vinnie Pasquantino (Royals)
Christian Walker (D-Backs)
Corbin Carroll (D-Backs)
Bryan Reynolds (Pirates)

Best Home Run Matchups - May 4

Here's a quick look at what stands out from our additional research - vulnerable pitchers, hot hitters, good weather, etc.

  • Favorable weather: Minimal
  • Bullpens allowing the most HR: Rays (22), Blue Jays (21), Angels (18), Dodgers (17), White Sox (16)
  • Pitcher targets: Dane Dunning (TEX), Lance Lynn (STL), Michael King (SD), Kevin Gausman (TOR), Austin Gomber (COL)
  • Sneaky Hot Hitters: W. Adames, J. Cronenworth, T. Nevin, C. Walker, W. Perez, C. Morel (3+ HR in last 7 days)

Home Run Picks for Saturday, May 4

Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber (+360)

The Phillies slugger is our highest-probability home run hitter today, clocking in just south of 25%. He gets a slim edge of 2.7% against his best odds at BetMGM (also +360 on FanDuel).

He'll face Giants righthander Keaton Winn whose Average exit Velo and Hard-Hit % match up well with Schwarber's. Though Schwarber hits just .114 off righties, he's taken them deep five times this year.

Giants vs. Phillies Full Game Prediction

Pick 2: Christian Walker (+45)

Walker didn't get it done for us last night but we're riding with him again in a favorable matchup. He gets a strong 20.2% probability to go yard tonight and will get a matchup with the Padres' Michael King.

King's been hammered this year to the tune of 10 home runs already, and walker has crushed righties with six of his seven home runs. His Barrel % is in the 99th percentile of the league.

Padres vs. D-Backs Full Game Prediction

Pick 3: Mookie Betts (+450)

Next up is an early MVP favorite in the National League, Mookie Betts. His early-season HR barrage has cooled off a bit, but not for lack of trying, as his batted ball metrics are among the best in the league.

He gets a 20.4% probability from our model tonight and has a matchup with the Braves ' RHP Bryce Elder who's made just a pair of starts this year. Betts has hit five of six home runs off righthanders.

Braves vs. Dodgers Full Game Prediction

Pick 4: Salvador Perez (+500)

Royals veteran Salvador Perez is hitting the ball harder than almost everyone in baseball. He's hit 7 bombs off righthanded pitcher this year and gets one of them ore vulnerable righthanded starters of late in the Rangers' Dane Dunning. 

Dunning's Barrel % (1st percentile), Average Exit Velo (2nd) and Hard-Hit % (5th) could not match up any better for Perez who dominates in those areas. He gets an 18.7% probability to hit his 9th home run tonight.

Rangers vs. Royals Full Game Prediction

Pick 5: Bryan Reynolds (+625)

We close out with switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates who gets a 16.2% home run probability from our model. We're attacking Rockies starter Austin Gomber in this game as he's allowed seven home runs so far this season.

Reynolds has hit lefties well so far this year with three of his four home runs, and a 1.074 OPS through 38 ABs. Gomber also primarily throws a 4-seamer and Reynolds excels at hitting (and crushing) the fastball.

Rockies vs. Pirates Full Game Prediction

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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