MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Friday, May 10

MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Friday, May 10

It's time to chase those home runs on Friday, May 10! As you're likely aware, we love our home run props at Dimers. From single edge plays to round robins and "Dinger Tuesday", we're always on the hunt for the next guy (or guys) to go yard on any given MLB night.

If you follow us on Twitter/X, then you know we drop Home Run Round Robins every day that we have the data available to do so. You can read our detailed guide into Round Robin strategy here, and it's not just exclusive to baseball, either!

You can find upwards of 50+ home run props on full game days within Dimers Pro. While we lean on our Dimers Prodata to identify our favorite round robin targets, we use a multitude of resources to narrow down our "final five" from the DimersBOT selections.

In an effort to continue building up our content offerings, as well as give you further insight into our Round Robin process, we're going to roll out this daily article as a companion piece to the final round Robin parlay we go with.

MORE: How to Build Home Run Parlays with Dimers Pro

Depending on when you check this article throughout the day, you'll find updates including our earliest HR Prop edges available, our short list of potential candidates before we narrow them down, and finally, our five picks with a little insight into why we chose them.

Let's get right into it!

Best Home Run Prop Bets - Friday, May 10

Below, you'll find the Top 5 Home Run Prop edges available to Dimers Pro as of 10:00 AM ET this morning. More often than not, at least one or two of these players will find their way into our final round robin play.

RELATED: Detailed Home Run Round Robin Strategy

Today's Home Run Targets

On first glance, these are the players we'll be researching today, Friday, May 10. These may come from our top probabilities, hot hitters, good matchups - whatever stands out first. Some may get added into this list, while others are taken off as we dig deeper into our data. This list will populate throughout the day, so check back later if it's blank!

With a lot of afternoon games today, we'll likely be targeting the nighttime games, however we'll still put the guys we like here if you're inclined for some afternoon action.

Potential Home Run Picks - May 10, 2024
Rafael Devers (BOS)
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)
Marcus Semien (TEX)
Corey Seager (TEX)
Kyle Tucker (HOU)
Bryce Harper (PHI)
Isaac Paredes (TB)
Mookie Betts (LAD)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)

Best Home Run Matchups - May 10

Here's a quick look at what stands out from our additional research - vulnerable pitchers, hot hitters, good weather, etc.

  • Favorable weather: Minimal
  • Bullpens allowing the most HR: Rays, Blue Jays (22), White Sox (20), Angels, Reds (19)
  • Pitcher targets: P. Corbin (WSH), T. Rogers (MIA), L. Lynn (STL), A. Gomber (COL), G. Canning (LAA)
  • Hot Hitters (5+ HR last 15 days): K. Tucker (6), A. Judge, C. Morel, M. Muncy, S. Ohtani (5)

Home Run Picks for Friday, May 10

Below you'll find the five home run props we're looking at for our Friday night Round Robin Parlay. Once we confirm as many lineups as possible, we'll share it on social, but if you catch it here first, this is our expected play.

Pick 1: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+625)

Our first leg is our model's highest probability home run hitter with an edge, Boston's Rafael Devers. He's got four home runs this year with his most recent coming three games ago after not hitting one for a couple weeks.

He's making great contact and has a strong matchup against the Nationals' Patrick Corbin. Devers' home runs have all come off of righties this year, but has historically hit them pretty well and it's hard to ignore the huge edge in his odds here.

⚾ Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Pick 2: Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Next, we've got a guy who is one of our favorite reoccurring pitching matchups against the Rockies' Austin Gomber. Marcus Semien has seven homers so far this year and Gomber has given up the same, six of those to righties like Semien in just 28.2 innings. Mix in a 21% probability, great value and Coors Field of all places and we've got a great home run pick.

Note: Semien is not yet confirmed at this point, but we expect him to be in the lineup

⚾ Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

Pick 3: Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+500)

The hottest HR hitter over the past two weeks, Kyle Tucker has jumped out to a career-best pace, more than a third of the way to his best mark of 30 home runs in a season. King Tuck has crushed both righties and lefties this year and gets a 20% home run probability tonight, making his fair odds +400, giving us clear value.

⚾ Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

Pick 4: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+525)

Another guy out to one of his best starts, Harper has nine homers through the first six weeks of the season...and that's with his home run metrics taking a slight dip. He gets a 19% probability from our model and will start this game against the Marlins' Trevor Rogers who's allowed four homers so far, but has an xHR of 5.3. On top of that, we'll have some late chances with the Marlins' bullpen having allowed 18 home runs so far this season, tied for the the fourth-most.

⚾ Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Pick 5: Mookie Betts to Hit a home Run (+500)

We'll close it out with the latest game to feature a player in our Round Robin, an NL clash between the Dodgers and Padres. Mookie is in our Round Robin Hall of Fame but he's looking for his first home run since April 12, if you can believe that given his six on the season.

This is as good of a spot for Mookie to get back to it - he gets the Padres' Michael King who has given up 10 home runs this season - tied for the most in MLB with his teammate Joe Musgrove. Mookie has hit a pair of King in their limited six plate appearances. At an 18% probability, we get small value on Betts who should be +450 according to our model.

Note: Betts is not yet confirmed at this point, but we expect him to be in the lineup

⚾ Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Betting Preview

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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