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Read Article Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1000 pick for Thursday [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 14, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for May 14, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1000.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.8% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.9% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 21.6% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 19.6% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 18.3% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 17.4% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 17.4% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 16.8% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 16.8% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 16.7% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.8% chance to go deep, followed by Shea Langeliers (22.9%) and Brent Rooker (21.6%).
Tyler Soderstrom and Byron Buxton are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. features in our home run predictions on Thursday, May 14, 2026.
Thursday's home run picks [5/14/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
James Outman (Twins) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13%
- Odds: bet_rivers_in+1000
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Marlins vs. Twins (1:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Braxton Garrett
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Minnesota slugger James Outman rates as a value play at +1000 with bet_rivers_in, showing a 3.9% edge.
Against Marlins starter Braxton Garrett, the data supports Outman as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 14, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's James Outman who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +1000 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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