MLB picks today: Tuesday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Rangers play [5/12/2026]

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 61.3%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)

Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Rangers at -122 odds. A 61.3% probability produces an edge of 6.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Rockies vs. Pirates over 7.5 runs (-102)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Rockies vs. Pirates over 7.5 runs carries a 5.1% edge and a probability of 55.6% at -102 odds, according to our model.

Angels vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs (+102)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 54.4%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Tuesday)

Angels vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs at +102 odds shows a 4.9% edge, supported by a 54.4% probability in simulations.

Rays vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs (+120)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 49.6%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Tuesday)

A 4.1% edge and 49.6% probability make Rays vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Rays vs. Blue Jays matchup, per our model.

Cubs vs. Braves over 9.5 runs (+130)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 47.5%
• Matchup: Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Tuesday)

Cubs vs. Braves over 9.5 runs at +130 odds presents a 4.0% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 47.5%.

Padres vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 54.6%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Padres vs. Brewers at -106 odds, supported by an edge of 3.1%.

Marlins vs. Twins over 9.5 runs (+130)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 46.6%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Twins over 9.5 runs at +130 odds. A 46.6% probability produces a 3.1% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Astros +1.5 (-117)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 56.8%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Tuesday)

A 2.8% edge on a 56.8% probability makes Astros +1.5 at -117 odds a solid value play in today's Mariners vs. Astros matchup.

Royals vs. White Sox over 9.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 50.2%
• Matchup: Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Our model projects value on over 9.5 runs at +111 odds. A 50.2% probability produces a 2.7% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Twins ML (+102)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 52.1%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Twins to defeat Marlins at +102 odds shows a 52.1% probability and a 2.6% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Tuesday, 5/12/2026

As of 7:05AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers	Over 7.5 Runs	-122 @ kalshi	6.3%	61.3%
Rockies vs. Pirates	Over 7.5 Runs	-102 @ polymarket	5.1%	55.6%
Angels vs. Guardians	Over 8.5 Runs	+102 @ polymarket	4.9%	54.4%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Over 8.5 Runs	+120 @ polymarket	4.1%	49.6%
Cubs vs. Braves	Over 9.5 Runs	+130 @ polymarket	4.0%	47.5%
Padres vs. Brewers	Over 8.5 Runs	-106 @ polymarket	3.1%	54.6%
Marlins vs. Twins	Over 9.5 Runs	+130 @ polymarket	3.1%	46.6%
Mariners vs. Astros	Astros +1.5	-117 @ kalshi	2.8%	56.8%
Royals vs. White Sox	Over 9.5 Runs	+111 @ polymarket	2.7%	50.2%
Marlins vs. Twins	Twins ML	+102 @ polymarket	2.6%	52.1%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/12/2026]

• Angels vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Tuesday)
• Nationals vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Tuesday)
• Tigers vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Tuesday)
• Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Tuesday)
• Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Padres vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Marlins vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• D-Backs vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
• Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Tuesday)
• Cardinals vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Tuesday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 12, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Rockies vs. Pirates matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.