MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Rockies vs. Pirates play [5/14/2026]

Rockies vs. Pirates over 7.5 runs (-111)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Rockies vs. Pirates at -111 odds. A 59.3% probability produces an edge of 6.8%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Phillies vs. Red Sox over 7.5 runs (+106)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 53.1%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Red Sox (6:45PM ET, Thursday)

Phillies vs. Red Sox over 7.5 runs carries a 4.6% edge and a probability of 53.1% at +106 odds, according to our model.

Padres vs. Brewers over 7.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 57.9%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Brewers (1:40PM ET, Thursday)

Padres vs. Brewers over 7.5 runs at -115 odds shows a 4.4% edge, supported by a 57.9% probability in simulations.

Tigers vs. Mets over 7.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 51.6%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. Mets (1:10PM ET, Thursday)

A 4.1% edge and 51.6% probability make Tigers vs. Mets over 7.5 runs at a value play in the Tigers vs. Mets matchup, per our model.

Royals vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Thursday)

Royals vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs at +111 odds presents a 4.0% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 51.5%.

Cubs vs. Braves over 7.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Thursday)

Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Cubs vs. Braves at -106 odds, supported by an edge of 3.8%.

Marlins vs. Twins over 8.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Twins (1:40PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Twins over 8.5 runs at -106 odds. A 55.1% probability produces a 3.6% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Giants vs. Dodgers over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Thursday)

A 3.5% edge on a 51.5% probability makes over 8.5 runs at +108 odds a solid value play in today's Giants vs. Dodgers matchup.

Athletics ML (-102)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Athletics (3:05PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on Athletics to win at -102 odds. A 53.8% probability produces a 3.3% edge, making Athletics the favorable ML play in Saturday’s matchup.

Nationals vs. Reds over 8.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 49.7%
• Matchup: Nationals vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Nationals vs. Reds over 8.5 runs at +115 odds shows a 49.7% probability and a 3.2% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 5/14/2026

As of 7:37AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Rockies vs. Pirates	Over 7.5 Runs	-111 @ polymarket	6.8%	59.3%
Phillies vs. Red Sox	Over 7.5 Runs	+106 @ polymarket	4.6%	53.1%
Padres vs. Brewers	Over 7.5 Runs	-115 @ polymarket	4.4%	57.9%
Tigers vs. Mets	Over 7.5 Runs	+111 @ polymarket	4.1%	51.6%
Royals vs. White Sox	Over 8.5 Runs	+111 @ polymarket	4.0%	51.5%
Cubs vs. Braves	Over 7.5 Runs	-106 @ polymarket	3.8%	55.3%
Marlins vs. Twins	Over 8.5 Runs	-106 @ polymarket	3.6%	55.1%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Over 8.5 Runs	+108 @ kalshi	3.5%	51.5%
Cardinals vs. Athletics	Athletics ML	-102 @ polymarket	3.3%	53.8%
Nationals vs. Reds	Over 8.5 Runs	+115 @ polymarket	3.2%	49.7%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/14/2026]

• Rockies vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Nationals vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Tigers vs. Mets (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Padres vs. Brewers (1:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Marlins vs. Twins (1:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Mariners vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Cardinals vs. Athletics (3:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Phillies vs. Red Sox (6:45PM ET, Thursday)
• Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 14, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Rockies vs. Pirates matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Phillies vs. Red Sox matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.